At 24 years old, Julio Rodriguez is already a former AL Rookie of the Year, has a 30-30 season under his belt, is a two-time Silver Slugger recipient, and a three-time MLB All-Star. As is typical throughout his career, Rodriguez is coming alive in the second half of the season, too. He has had six multi-hit games since July 20 and has four home runs during that span. However, you can still find him priced as high as +420 in the latest MLB home run odds on Wednesday as the Mariners take on the Athletics in a game that starts at 10:05 p.m. ET.
Rodriguez has a .897 career OPS after the All-Star break, and that’s a big reason why he’s one of our top MLB home run picks and the tip of the spear in our MLB HR parlay today. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest FanDuel promo code to receive $150 in bonus bets if their first wager of $5 or more wins, and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 42.85 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. You can also check out our MLB longshot picks, and game picks Orioles vs. Blue Jays, Red Sox vs. Twins and Mets vs. Padres.
Best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, July 30:
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners (+420)
The conditions in Sacramento on Wednesday night should be ideal for a right-handed power hitter, with game-time temperatures in the 80s and a 10 mph wind blowing out to left-center field. The young superstar will also have an ideal lefty vs. righty matchup and is on a hot streak, as mentioned.
“Jeffrey Spring has given up 20 HRs on the season and 17 of them have come against right-handed batters. Rodriguez is also 3-for-9 with a HR in his career against Springs,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +405 for Rodriguez to hit a HR.” FanDuel has the best price here and is also offering a 30% MLB profit boost for same-game parlays today:
Sean Murphy, Braves (+500)
Murphy has 47 home runs in just 829 at-bats in three seasons since joining the Braves and has provided extraordinary value as a platooning catcher with great power that is excellent defensively. It will also be a hot day in Kansas City with the wind blowing out and the HR index for today is 10 out of 10.
“The weather in Kansas City is going to be steamy with the wind blowing out. The home run index is a 10 out of 10 in this game, so Murphy might not need to get all of the ball to hit it out,” Fetner said. “Murphy has 16 HRs in 71 games and while he hasn’t hit a HR in his last nine starts, we believe he is due.” The model sets Murphy’s line at +350, so it’s a steal to find this price now at BetMGM.
Junior Caminero, Rays (+400)
The model called Caminero going yard in Game 1 of this series against the Yankees and now it will go back to the well once again on one of the game’s most dynamic young power hitters. He’s hit 27 home runs already in his first full season in the big leagues and Yankees starter Will Warren has given up six home runs in his last five starts. The temperature at Yankee Stadium will also be 90 degrees tonight with the wind blowing out to left field.
“Caminero’s average line is +315, so getting +400 is strong value,” Fetner said. “Caminero has an .850 OPS and 21 of his 27 HRs against RHPs and is facing a struggling RHP.” FanDuel is once again offering the best price here with the model projecting Caminero’s line at closer to +300.
Where to bet MLB props on Wednesday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Wednesday:
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 68-60-1 roll (+1350) on MLB picks.
Add Comment