The red-hot New York Mets seek their eighth consecutive victory when they visit the San Diego Padres on Monday for the opener of their three-game series at Petco Park. New York (62-44) lost its first two contests after the All-Star break but has won seven straight since, defeating the San Francisco Giants 5-3 on Sunday to complete a three-game sweep and match its longest winning streak of the season.
The Mets, who also won seven in row from April 17-23, own a 1 1/2-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East. They look to continue their run behind right-hander Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA), who registered a season-high six strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Angels en route to his third straight victory in his last outing.
San Diego, which trails the NL West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers by four games, counters with Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59). The 29-year-old righty is 0-3 lifetime against New York and 0-4 over his last five starts this season, although he reached double digits in strikeouts for the third time in 2025 with 10 versus the Washington Nationals on July 18.
The top sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Cease (Over -130, Under +100) at 6.5 and Montas (Over +115, Under -147) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Montas’ Over 4.5 strikeout prop as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Cease’s Over 6.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Monday’s 15-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two others it has rated at 4.5 stars, both of which return plus money. Here they are:
Matthew Boyd Over 4.5 strikeouts (-142) vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.0 strikeouts
Boyd is going to have to be on his best game to start a series which could ultimately end up deciding the NL Central and top seed in the league at the end of the season. The Cubs ace has been on fire lately, winning his last four starts and throwing 20 scoreless innings heading into Monday’s contest against the Brewers. Milwaukee isn’t exactly a strikeout-heavy team but the Brewers have struck out at least eight times in five straight games. That sets up Boyd to go Over his 4.5 line Monday.
Spencer Strider Over 6.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 7.2 strikeouts
Strider has been racking up the strikeouts of late, registering 26 over 17 2/3 innings in his last three starts. The 26-year-old righty fanned at least seven batters in each of those outings after accomplishing that feat only four times in his first 10 turns this season. Strider has gone Over his projected strikeout total in three of his last five road starts with an average of 6.8 per game. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have struck out fewer times this year than Kansas City (728), but the Royals have fanned 18 times over their last two games. Acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks over the weekend, Kansas City’s Randal Grichuk has been retired five times in seven career at-bats against Strider, four via the strikeout.
Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 strikeouts (+118) vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.8 strikeouts
The Rangers starter has gone Under his strikeouts line in eight of his last 12 games against teams with a losing record, so deGrom might not rack up the strikeout count against the 51-55 Angels. Los Angeles does lead the league in strikeouts with 1,024 so this lineup is prone to getting punched out but this particular matchup hasn’t been good for deGrom. He struck out five against the Angels this year in five innings of work, and five in four innings against L.A. a year ago. It’s hard to see those trends going away, even with a lineup that strikes out a lot. To get to seven strikeouts, deGrom would likely to have to work into the seventh inning, which he hasn’t done since late June.
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