There were several big upsets in the MLB on Sunday, including the Angels beating the Mariners as +150 underdogs. Los Angeles is a +166 underdog against Texas during the Monday MLB schedule, which is one of the MLB longshots that SportsLine’s model is targeting. Mike Trout hit the 397th home run of his career on Sunday, moving into 62nd place on the all-time home run list. He also has the third-most RBI in franchise history, and the model has him recording 1.62 total bases in its latest simulations for Monday’s slate.
The model is also backing the Royals (+145) vs. Braves and Reds (+136) vs. Dodgers, identifying value on both of those MLB upset picks. Before making any MLB picks or building any MLB parlays, you’ll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. Bet on every MLB game at DraftKings Sportsbook, where you can get $150 in bonus bets instantly with the latest DraftKings promo code:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 17 of the 2025 MLB season 46-43 on top-rated MLB picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 40 units of profit. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
The model has broken down the MLB betting odds for Monday and just revealed its top MLB longshot picks. Combining the model’s three picks into an MLB parlay at FanDuel Sportsbook would result in a payout of +1431 (risk $100 to win $1,431). New users can even take advantage of the FanDuel promo code offering $150 in bonus bets if their first bet wins. Click here to claim the offer:
Here are its best longshot bets for the MLB slate on Monday:
- Reds money line vs. Dodgers (+136)
- Royals money line vs. Braves (+145)
- Angels money line vs. Rangers (+166)
- Combine these picks for a shot at a +1431 payout (odds subject to change). Bet now at bet365, where new users can get $150 in bonus bets with a $5+ bet:
Reds money line vs. Dodgers (+136)
Cincinnati is coming off a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay and is six games above the .500 mark for the first time since the 2023 season. The Reds are trying to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and rookie pitcher Chase Burns has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his last three starts. Los Angeles is 8-13 in July and is amid a season-high nine-game road trip. The model has the Reds winning in 47% of simulations, while these odds imply just a 43% chance of winning.
Royals money line vs. Braves (+145)
Kansas City will have 45-year-old Rich Hill on the mound as he tries to build on a strong 2025 debut. Hill, who has never lost to Atlanta in nine career starts, allowed one earned run across five innings against the Cubs last Tuesday. He is facing an Atlanta team that is on a five-game losing streak and is 16 games under the .500 mark. The Braves have been outscored 40-12 during that five-game stretch, and the model has the Royals winning in 48% of simulations to provide value at this price.
Angels money line vs. Rangers (+166)
Texas is on a six-game winning streak after back-to-back sweeps of the Athletics and Braves, outscoring them 37-14. This has created a large money line on Monday night, and Los Angeles showed it can pull off an upset on Sunday. The Angels are coming off a 4-1 win over the Mariners, powered by Trout’s two-run homer. They also upset the Mariners on Friday in extra innings, as Zach Neto recorded a walk-off hit. The model has Los Angeles winning in 43% of simulations, which is significantly better than the implied probability of 37%.
Want more MLB picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s MLB best longshot bets for Monday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see today’s top MLB picks from expert Bruce Marshall, who’s on a sizzling 67-55-1 roll on his last 123 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up nearly 18 units.
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