Athletics star rookie Nick Kurtz had a historic performance on Friday night, becoming the first rookie to hit four home runs in a game. He also tied the MLB record for most total bases in a game with 19, finishing 6-for-6 with eight RBI in a 15-3 blowout. Kurtz is +350 to homer on Saturday in the MLB home run odds, which is one of the MLB HR bets that SportsLine’s model is targeting. He has a team-high 23 homers this season and has nine homers during his 12-game hitting streak.
There are 16 games during the Saturday MLB schedule, and 14 of them begin after 6:30 p.m. ET. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can use the latest BetMGM promo code to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if their first bet loses and take advantage of one of the top sportsbook promos:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It’s up 49.95 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season and has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Saturday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog. Also, see our top MLB longshot picks, Yankees vs. Phillies picks and best bets for Guardians vs. Royals.
Best MLB home run picks for Saturday, July 26:
Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+350)
Kurtz became the 20th player in league history to hit four homers in a game, as he homered in the second, sixth, eighth and ninth innings against the Astros on Friday. He is batting .343 with a 1.199 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season, with 19 of his 23 homers coming off righties. Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown is a Cy Young candidate, but Kurtz is playing too well to stay away from on Saturday.
“While Brown has been strong against left-handed hitters from an average standpoint, 8 of the 12 home runs he’s allowed this season have come against lefties,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set Kurtz’s line at +250 to homer.” Bet365 is offering Kurtz to homer at +350 odds, and the latest bet365 bonus code offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses. Bet it right here.
Ronald Acuna, Braves (+390)
Acuna has been outstanding against right-handed pitchers this season, batting .345 with 12 of his 13 homers coming against righties. His latest home run came against the Yankees on Sunday when he went 2-for-4. The outfielder has gone yard four times since July 9, so the model likes his chances of homering again on Saturday.
“Kumar Rocker has been dominant at home, which explains the current price, but he’s also allowed 9 home runs in 12 starts overall,” Fetner said. “That’s why the model believes he’s vulnerable today—especially against a hitter of Acuña’s caliber. We set his line at +300 to homer.” DraftKings is offering Acuna to homer at +390 odds, and the latest DraftKings promo code offers new users $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager, whether it wins or loses. Bet it right here.
Ceddanne Rafaela, Red Sox, (+630)
Rafaela is facing Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw at home on Saturday, which bodes well for Boston’s center fielder. He is a better hitter against left-handed pitchers and has been playing significantly better at home than on the road. Right-handed batters are hitting .266 with a .754 OPS against Kershaw this season, so Rafaela is worth a shot at this price.
“This is a longshot play, but FanDuel is offering strong value at +630. The consensus line is +525, and it’s as low as +450 on Caesars,” Fetner said. “We set Rafaela’s line at +490 to homer.” FanDuel is offering the best price, and the latest FanDuel promo code gives new users $150 in bonus bets with their first $5 bet. Check it out here.
Where to bet MLB props on Saturday
Here is a look at betting sites that will offer MLB HR props on Saturday:
More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 63-53-1 roll (+1583) on MLB picks.
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