LAS VEGAS — College football coaches obsess over data. They dissect statistical splits in games and practices and monitor players’ body-load outputs via GPS, searching for any edge to utilize on game days. But when it comes to identifying the best quarterback to lead their program during the grind of preseason camp, good old-fashioned intuition is often the deciding factor.
“I’ve never really had a feel for when the right time is,” said Ohio State coach Ryan Day. “It’s important for the locker room to believe in the quarterback. When the locker room believes in that guy, that’s the right time.”
Not every decision in football is scientific or complex. For fans and media, assumptions and projections often lead to preconceptions. As many as 13 Big Ten programs are expected to start a new quarterback this season. While many battles remain unsettled, the media have already penciled in presumed starters.
At Michigan, that assumed QB1 is a freshman: the nation’s No. 1 prospect, a 17-year-old Michigan native with the weight of the program on his shoulders. Bryce Underwood wasn’t at Big Ten media days this week, but his presence loomed large.
“Before anybody asks, it’s an open competition,” Michigan coach Sherrone Moore said with a smile. “He is not the starter right now. There is not a starter.”
If testimonials and intuition offer a preview of Moore’s eventual decision, Underwood may already be on his way to becoming the next Michigan Man.
Underwood has already earned the respect of Michigan’s upperclassmen. Teammates praised his humility and tireless work ethic in the weight room and during offseason practices.
“Every person sitting up here is going to tell you this guy is a great person,” said veteran tight end Max Bredeson. “But as soon as Bryce — a 17-year-old kid — walked into a college football locker room, not looking for approval but just showing what he does, and basically saying, ‘This is me. I’m not putting on anything fake, I’m ready to go work.’ Through that, he’s gotten what you’d say is the approval of people.
“It’s earning that trust. It sounds kind of dumb, but you’ve got to earn it by doing what you’re told by the coaches and doing everything the right way.”
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Facing the elements
The spotlight always shines brightest on blueblood programs. Though coaches face intense scrutiny, quarterbacks are often the face of the roster. Relying on a freshman isn’t a new concept in college football, but in the Big Ten — where harsh weather and coast-to-coast travel are common — the demands at the position can be even greater.
“It’s not fictional,” said Illinois coach Bret Bielema. “In the Southeastern Conference, those kids play in pretty good weather all the time. They’re going to get an occasional rain game, but we’re going to get a snow game in September or October. We get 50 mph winds in Memorial Stadium in November. … We play in all four time zones, we play in all four seasons. We play in hot weather, cold weather. That’s a uniqueness, but I’m going to tell you who loves that: the NFL.”
NFL teams measuring hand size at the scouting combine may be a running joke among coaches, but in the Big Ten, projecting a quarterback’s ability to perform in the elements is no laughing matter.
At Nebraska last season, an early October game against Rutgers was played in 90-degree heat with 35-mph wind gusts.
“It was the most insane day I’ve ever been a part of in my life,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said.
Both quarterbacks completed fewer than 50% of their passes, combining for three interceptions and one touchdown in Nebraska’s 14-7 win.
In November, when temperatures drop into the teens across the Midwest, quarterbacks reach for hand warmers, while opposing coaches look for weakness.
“When it’s really windy and you look over at the opposing team’s quarterback and he’s got small hands, you’re pretty excited about that, because the inaccuracy is going to come out more than it normally would,” Rutgers coach Greg Schiano said. “There’s definitely validity to that point.”
“When the elements hit, you have to have the ability to spin the ball,” Rhule added. “It’s not just your natural arm slot. It’s the ability to affect the ball, especially in the wind. If you want to play in Cleveland or any of these (NFL) cities, they’re typically looking for a guy with the mechanics and size that can play in those elements.”
Bitter cold may have contributed to Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s helmet cracking six inches during a hit from Ohio State linebacker Cody Simon in the Buckeyes’ 42-17 win in the College Football Playoff last season.
You know it when you see it
Anecdotal? Maybe. But is it really any different than a coach relying on gut instinct to name a starter?
“You know when they’ve grabbed them,” Moore said. “They’re going to make throws, they’re going to make plays, but when they’ve got the team — like we knew with J.J. (McCarthy), when he had the team — and when we’ve got that person there at the front, then we’ll know we got our starting quarterback.”
Back to Underwood, the freshman many expect to be Michigan’s next J.J. McCarthy. As a dual-threat quarterback, he’s capable of adding juice to the run game and punishing defenses with his arm.
“The biggest challenge for Bryce is at some point in time this season he’s going to face adversity,” Michigan defensive end Derrick Moore said. “It’s going to show some type of growth in him, whether it’s him or another quarterback in the room.”
The “other quarterback” is UCF transfer Mikey Keene, who was injured for much of the spring but leads the Wolverines with 2,209 career snaps.
“He’s a guy that’s done it, that has experienced it at a high level,” Moore said.
Keene will battle Underwood in preseason camp, but he may need to make up ground despite his edge in experience. Underwood has been working to build chemistry in the locker room.
“I think he’s grown every single day since he’s been on campus,” Moore said. “He’s been with us since December. Continues to do everything he can to be, one, the best teammate he can be; two, the best student he can be; and then, three, the best football player that he can be and quarterback that he can be for our football team.
“He does everything the right way. He makes sure that he attacks everything the best way. And I literally just got off the phone with him, calling me asking me what time he has to be at the team meeting on Tuesday. So he wants to make sure he’s on time to do everything right. He’s a great teammate, great kid, great young man.”
“I’m serious about everything,” Underwood told CBS Sports in November 2024. “I don’t care what it is, I’m competitive. I don’t like losing. It doesn’t matter what it is. If it’s a sport I’ve never played, I swear I will not leave until I get the gist of everything.”
Michigan teammates joked Thursday that they tried to keep Underwood out of a pickup basketball game this summer — an effort to protect the Wolverines’ prized quarterback, who is rumored to have signed an NIL deal worth $10 million after flipping from LSU during the last recruiting cycle.
“There’s this random number that people throw out that they think Bryce got, which, I don’t know where they got it from, but good for them,” Moore said. “The conversation I had with Bryce, I said, ‘Bryce, you come here, I’m not giving you anything. You have to go earn it,’ and verbatim out of his mouth was, ‘I would want it no other way.'”
Underwood was phenomenal in high school, winning two state titles with a 50-4 record as a starter. His career included 12,919 all-purpose yards and 179 touchdowns. He broke Michigan high school records for passing yards (11,488) and touchdowns (152), while collecting numerous individual honors.
It’s easy to project future greatness for Underwood, but in a sport with an oblong ball and 22 players on the field, much can go right — or wrong.
“First of all, he’s 17 years old, so he doesn’t really know what he doesn’t know yet,” Moore said. “There’s expectations as a high school student-athlete in the light he’s been in, but it’s different in Michigan. It was the same when J.J. was here. To be the starting quarterback of Michigan, it’s a lot. There’s ‘pressure,’ but there’s not pressure. His job is to be the best teammate, best football player he can be. Whoever that person is, it’s going to take a village for us to be a successful program.”
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