Hello to the last Friday before the MLB All-Star break. As the late, great Mel Allen would say, “How about that!?” It really doesn’t seem too long ago that the Cubs and Dodgers were kicking things off in the middle of March in Japan and now two teams have played 95 games this season. It’s been a fun ride, but, as always, the best is yet to come.
Enough with the lame intro, let’s get into the action.
Odds today are via BetMGM.
Dodgers (+105) at Giants
This is pretty simple. The Dodgers have lost six consecutive games and they are too good to have this keep happening for much longer. They are the better team, too, which means we get the better team with the law of averages on our side at plus money.
Now, let’s be clear. There’s a reason this is an underdog. The pitching matchup of Dodgers righty Dustin May (5-5, 4.52) vs. Giants righty Logan Webb (8-6, 2.62) favors the home team and, again, the Dodgers have lost six straight.
I think the Dodgers are too good to keep losing and while Webb is great, he’s not untouchable. The Giants are 5-4 in his home starts this season and he’s 5-6 with a 4.00 ERA in his career against the Dodgers.
Cubs at Yankees under 9 (+100)
We might be playing with fire, given the, um, firepower of these two offenses. Both are prone to offensive downturns, though, and this one feels like it for both sides to me.
Carlos Rodón takes the hill for the Yankees and the Cubs have had major issues against southpaw starters for weeks. It makes sense in looking at the complexion of their lineup. Switch-hitter Ian Happ is better from the left side, while Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch are all lefties. This is a ballpark that is worse for right-handed hitters, too.
On the other side, the Cubs are going with a bullpen game, but their bullpen has been great since the third week of April and starter Chris Flexen, in short bursts, has been outstanding this season with a 0.83 ERA.
I’m not saying this will necessarily be a duel with a 2-1 final score or anything, but something like 5-3 gets us home and that’s very reasonable, given the matchups here.
Home run play: TJ Friedl (+450)
It is hot and humid in Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, which is always a recipe for the ball to fly. The Rockies are in town, too, so that’s another bonus.
Germán Márquez gets the ball for the visitors. He’s coughed up 11 homers in 18 starts this season and six of those longballs have come on the road, where he has a 6.48 ERA. In his three career starts in Great American Ball Park, he’s posted a 5.68 ERA with three homers allowed.
And guess who has two of those? Friedl took Márquez deep twice — the only time the two have faced off in this ballpark.
Let’s give this a whirl. Friedl goes deep today!
Futures play: Brent Rooker to win Home Run Derby +1000
Look, this is a total crapshoot, so I just grabbed someone with four-digit odds. But also, Rooker could absolutely win this event. He has light-tower power, as a dude who clubbed 39 bombs last season and has 19 so far this year. He’s also somewhat from the area, as a high school player from Tennessee who went to Mississippi State, so it’s all SEC country? Yeah, sure, we’ll go with that. Why not?
Also, Rooker has done a Derby before. He took part in the 2016 College World Series Home Run Derby.
Do these reasons really matter? Probably not. As I said, it’s a crapshoot. Play whoever you want.
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