The Houston Astros attempt to complete a series sweep and post their fourth straight overall win when they host the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday in the finale of the three-game set between the division leaders. Houston, which owns a 5 1/2-game lead over the Seattle Mariners in the American League West, has yet to allow a run in the series as it posted 1-0 and 2-0 victories over Philadelphia.
Things won’t get any easier for the National League East-leading Phillies in the finale as major-league ERA leader Hunter Brown (8-3, 1.88 ERA) takes the mound for the Astros. The 26-year-old right-hander, who ranks fourth in the AL with 109 strikeouts, has given up a total of five runs over 29 1/3 innings while going unbeaten in his last five starts.
Philadelphia will counter with Cristopher Sanchez (6-2, 2.87), who has been consistently effective all season. The 28-year-old Dominican lefty, who is eighth in the NL in ERA, has permitted more than three runs just once in his 15 starts and two or fewer in each of his last five turns.
Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for Brown (Over -122, Under -108) at 6.5 and Sanchez (Over -163, Under +121) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Sanchez Over 4.5 as a 4-star play on its five-star scale and Brown Under 6.5 as a 3-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Thursday’s nine-game schedule, as there is one pitcher strikeout player prop that it has rated at 5 stars and two at 4.5 stars that return plus money. Here they are:
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 strikeouts (+107) vs. Blue Jays (1:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
Bibee has gone Over this strikeout total in eight of his 15 starts this season and fanned at least six batters in five of his last six outings. The 26-year-old right-hander set a season high last time out, recording 10 strikeouts over eight innings against the Athletics. Bibee, who registered at least five strikeouts in two of his three previous career outings against the Blue Jays, has racked up 25 across 25 2/3 frames in four starts this month.
Shota Imanaga Over 4.5 strikeouts (+127) vs. Cardinals (2:15 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.2 strikeouts
Imanaga will be making his return from a hamstring injury that has kept him off the mound since May 4. The 31-year-old Japanese southpaw registered six or more strikeouts in two of his last four starts prior to being sidelined. Imanaga struck out 13 batters over 13 2/3 innings in two turns against the Cardinals last season, fanning Brendan Donovan three times in six at-bats and Masyn Winn three times in seven trips to the plate.
Janson Junk Over 3.5 strikeouts (-110) vs. Giants (3:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.9 strikeouts
Junk will be making his second consecutive start after beginning the season with five appearances out of the bullpen. In his first turn in the rotation last Friday, the 29-year-old righty registered five strikeouts over as many innings in a victory against the Atlanta Braves. Junk fanned four or more batters in four of his relief outings, including one versus the Giants on May 30 in which he recorded five strikeouts across four frames.
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