After snubbing 76ers, where is mercurial prospect Ace Bailey angling to go in NBA Draft? Here’s what we think

Late Wednesday night, Rutgers freshman and potential top-three pick Ace Bailey canceled a scheduled visit with the Philadelphia 76ers — the team slated to pick third in the NBA Draft — prompting questions about the curious handling of his pre-draft process and where his stock sits leading into next Wednesday’s draft.

Bailey is ranked by 247Sports’ Director of Scouting Adam Finkelstein and myself as the No. 3 overall player in the class (we were out-voted by the rest of the staff on that), and for months has been projected as the No. 3 pick. But his decision to cancel on the 76ers is an unexpected late-cycle twist that could change not just the trajectory of the top of the annual draft, but of Bailey’s career arc, too.

I convened Finkelstein for an emergency huddle on Thursday to break down the latest on the situation to try and assess how things got to this point, what it means and where things stand in the quickly-shifting landscape of the draft. We were each given prompts related to the situation and our answers are below.

Q: On Wednesday, we learned that Ace Bailey canceled his scheduled visit with the Philadelphia 76ers slated for Friday that included a dinner and a private team workout. He’s now reportedly the only U.S.-based prospect yet to visit any teams. What do you make of this situation and what does it signal to you?

Finkelstein: This looks like Bailey’s representation is trying to dictate where he ends up in the draft. It has already been rumored that he had little interest in Charlotte or Utah, and that simultaneously he was adamant that he was a top 3 prospect in this class. Exactly why he cancelled with Philadelphia is unclear, but if it’s not them, and it’s not the Hornets or the Jazz, then the Wizards look like the logical choice. They are certainly in more of a rebuild than Philadelphia and would, theoretically, be able to offer him the level of opportunity needed to prove his doubters wrong. 

Boone: Without being Bailey or his representation, it’s hard to definitively say what’s going on right now — so I want to be as fair as possible given that caveat. But it sure seems at this point that this is possible mismanagement and misreading of the situation. My speculative thoughts are that he and his team believe he’s the clear No. 3 in the class and doesn’t need to do the dog and pony show for teams to prove as much. Meanwhile, teams seem less convinced of that, so not conducting a thorough pre-draft process to meet with teams or workout for them may be adding to the volatility of his stock.

Q: In terms of Bailey’s draft stock right now, what’s your read on his range for next week’s draft? And have the latest developments changed that perception for you?

Finkelstein: There’s still a chance that Philadelphia could take Bailey at 3. Morey has shown a willingness to draft prospects who don’t work out for him. The same could be said for Charlotte or Utah, although I think the Jazz are the more likely of the two to do so. I don’t believe he will go any lower than the Wizards at 6. 

Boone: The revelation that he has not only canceled on the 76ers but also that he has not yet visited with any NBA team makes me rethink what his range is, absolutely. Before Wednesday I would’ve said his range is between 3 and 5. After Wednesday I think his range is a bit wider, and somewhere between 3 (76ers) and 8 (Nets). I find it hard to believe Utah (pick No. 5), Washington (pick No. 6) or New Orleans (pick No. 7) passing on him, honestly. But my final draft grades on Tre Johnson, VJ Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel are very similar to Bailey’s. It wouldn’t surprise me if other teams felt similarly and wound up passing on Bailey for one of those players. 

Per FanDuel Sportsbook, Bailey has the second-best odds to go No. 3, the third-best odds to go No. 4 and the second-best odds to go No. 5, before being the favorite to land at No. 6 (+280), which is a spot Washington holds. 

Q: What is your evaluation on Bailey as a prospect in the context of the 2025 class? 

Finkelstein: I still believe he’s a top 3 prospect in this class. He’s a big wing, high-level athlete, and tough shot-maker. That’s the description of a player who has a chance to grow into an all-star caliber talent. There are, of course, still areas that he has to improve, including his willingness to pass, decision-making, and even ability to pressure the rim in the half-court. 

Boone: He earned a 93.5 grade for me during the evaluation process which tied for the third-highest among players in this class behind Cooper Flagg and Dylan Harper and tied with Tre Johnson. That puts him as a projected high-level starter with All-Star potential in my grading system. But to be clear: he has always been a tough evaluation. On one hand he’s a gifted shot-taker and maker with excellent size. No one in the class aside from maybe Tre Johnson can score the way he can. On the other hand, his shot diet from high school and college must be significantly refined in the NBA to translate to winning, and his weaknesses as an inconsistent defender and occasional black hole on offense make his projection to the next level a bit tricky. I still rank him as the No. 3 player in the class because of his ceiling outcome, but it must be acknowledged that him becoming an empty calories stat-stuffer is also in his range of outcomes.  

Q: Does this situation prompt you to reconsider your evaluation on him at all? 

Finkelstein: No. If anything, it creates questions about his representation, but I think some of that is coming from NBA sources who aren’t pleased that a rookie agent is not allowing his clients to work out for their teams. 

Boone: Same. It doesn’t change my personal evaluation of him as a player. At best, this seems like a major misstep from a PR standpoint. At worst, it’s immaturity. Either case does not affect my projection on him. It’s very possible that this is a case where an 18-year-old and a management team with little experience is thrust into a very public situation and doesn’t handle it perfectly. Not ideal, but I don’t think it should — and for me it doesn’t — alter the view of him as a basketball player. 

Q: Whose situation does this remind you of, if anyone? And how do you envision this playing out? 

Finkelstein: It reminds me a little bit of Josh Jackson, who famously opted against working out for the Celtics to force his way to the Suns. The Suns took Jayson Tatum and won an NBA championship with him at the helm of the program. Jackson is now out of the league. Gulp. 

Boone: The first name that comes to mind is Ben Simmons, who in 2016 initially declined to workout for the 76ers — who held pick No. 1. However, Simmons did finally hold a private workout for the team just days before the draft and he was ultimately selected No. 1 overall by Philly.

It’s not uncommon for representation of top prospects to withhold medical information or avoid meetings or workouts with certain teams as a tactic to steer their client a certain direction related to NBA team destination. But it is a bit unusual for a holdout to last this long. 

There’s a meaningful difference in rookie pay scale between the No. 3 pick and, say, the No. 8 pick, so there really isn’t incentive to intentionally tank your stock. My bet is that Bailey eventually caves and meets with the 76ers or works out for them, or is passed on by the team only to be selected shortly thereafter. Things feel volatile right now but six days is an eternity in draft days. A lot can and probably will change between now and draft night.