We’ve already run through MLB’s MVP races and Cy Young races here in Awards Watch over the last two weeks, so now it’s time to dive into the Rookie of the Year pursuits in each league here.
While there are certainly a few standouts, the rookie class this season, to this point, has been a bit lackluster. There’s plenty of talent, though, and it’s possible things pick up from here as the talented rookies get more comfortable at the big-league level.
We’ll start with the Junior Circuit, where the odds suggest there’s a runaway (all odds via FanDuel).
American League
Top 4 odds
Wilson is a throwback, ball-on-bat hitter and it’s worked beautifully. He’s hitting .360 with only 18 strikeouts in 272 at-bats. He’s also getting on base at a .399 clip and has 15 doubles, eight homers, 38 RBI, 39 runs, five steals and 2.6 WAR. I noted that this was a lackluster rookie class so far, but that doesn’t apply to Wilson. He’s outstanding and running away with the hardware right now on the AL side. Given that he hit .401 in 79 minor-league games and was a career .361 hitter in college (with a .411 average his last year at Grand Canyon), I’m willing to believe he keeps hitting like he has. If he does, this “race” is pretty much over here, barring a major injury.
Anthony is supremely talented and could play in more than half the Red Sox’s games this season, but man, that just doesn’t seem like it’ll be enough with competition like Wilson. Even a major injury and Wilson and Anthony end up in a similar area in games played. Can Anthony really be good enough to close the gap? I wouldn’t bet on it.
Caglianone is now hitting .196/.212/.235 with two doubles, zero home runs, two RBI, one walk and 12 strikeouts in his first 13 MLB games. His calling card is his home run power and he hasn’t hit any yet. He could pile them up in bunches, but he’s not going to get to 100 games played. Is he really going to be that awesome to close the gap on Wilson? I’m dubious.
Domínguez has played in 59 games for the Yankees. He’s only hit .236/.323/.382 with 11 doubles, six homers, 26 RBI, 29 runs and 10 steals so far, worth just 0.1 WAR. He does have a foundation of counting stats, though, and could get very hot down the stretch for a team that figures to win the AL East.
Speaking of players with a foundation of counting stats, Kristian Campbell is at +4000 and so is Yankees pitcher Will Warren.
Another at +4000? Astros’ outfielder Cam Smith. He’s hitting .266/.336/.412 (110 OPS+) with 12 doubles, a triple, five homers, 26 RBI, 26 runs and 1.8 WAR. Why isn’t he listed closer to the top here?
The play
I think all roads lead to Wilson here, but I’m not interesting in paying that price for a wager on him. If you really wanted to grab a long shot, I would look at Cam Smith. Those odds are, as I like to say, intriguing and enticing. To be clear, I think Wilson wins the AL Rookie of the Year here in 2025.
National League
Top 6 odds
Lefty-swinging catcher Baldwin is hitting .285/.333/.467 (121 OPS+) with four doubles, seven homers, 19 RBI and 1.3 WAR through 47 games. He’d win the award for the best NL rookie to this point, but there are concerns moving forward. First off, he doesn’t play close to everyday. In the Braves’ last 20 games, Baldwin has started nine times to Sean Murphy’s 11. Also, DH isn’t open because Marcell Ozuna has that tied down. Baldwin’s numbers are also heavily skewed by a hot streak. In his last 16 games, he’s hitting .136/.191/.273.
Basically, I’m looking elsewhere.
Ramírez has 10 homers and 11 doubles with a .242/.293/.458 (103 OPS+) slash line. He’s been a DH 26 times and a catcher 21 times. He’s been bad enough behind the plate (leading the majors with five passed balls, plus eight wild pitches and opposing runners are 27 of 30 against him in stolen bases) that he sports a negative WAR.
Again, I’ll pass.
Casparius is interesting. He’s been a starter, reliever, the length guy behind an opener and pretty much anything in between for the Dodgers amid all their pitching injuries. He’s 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA (130 ERA+), 1.03 WHIP and 48 strikeouts against 10 walks in 47 ⅔ innings. He’s 5-1 with seven holds and only one blown save. He’s inherited nine runners and allowed none of them to score. He’s just been such a valuable Swiss Army Knife for Dave Roberts. If he moves into the Dodgers rotation for an extended stretch, he’ll accumulate a lot more value.
Misiorowski is very talented but has only made one MLB start (his second comes Wednesday night in Wrigley Field). You’re speculating here if you wanted to take him, but I’d understand it. This race is wide open.
Shaw has shown several flashes of being the guy to trust here and +1000 is a beautiful number. At 1.0 WAR he trails only Baldwin among NL rookie position players and we’ve already discussed my lack of belief in that one. Shaw is overall hitting .320/.301/.331 (83 OPS+), but he was terrible before an early-season demotion and has hit .267/.305/.389 with eight doubles, a homer, six RBI, 11 runs and seven steals in his 25 games since returning. The full-season stat line is ultimately what matters, but the point here is that he’s trending toward being very valuable for a high-profile that team figures to win its division.
Don’t forget about Patrick. He’s tough as nails and has good stuff. Through 79 ⅔ innings, he’s posted a 3.50 ERA (113 ERA+) and 1.28 WHIP with 76 strikeouts. He only worked 136 ⅓ innings in Triple-A last season, so I don’t know how far past 150 the Brewers want him to go. That might be enough to win in this field, though. Do not count him out. He’s a better bet than Misiorowski for me.
The play
As if you couldn’t figure it out above, Shaw is my pick. Past him, Casparius makes sense and a longer shot could be Patrick.
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