The Thursday MLB schedule features eight games with 16 teams in action. The Thursday slate gets underway with Mets vs. Nationals at 1:10 p.m. ET. Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.59 ERA) will be on the mound for the Mets, while Michael Soroka (3-3, 4.86 ERA) will start for the Nationals. Despite what looks like a potential mismatch between starting pitchers, the SportsLine Projection Model expects Washington to cover +1.5 on the run line. The Mets are -247 favorites (risk $247 to win $100) on the money-line in the latest Mets vs. Nationals odds.
The model is also calling for a lower scoring game than expected in the Rockies vs. Giants matchup at 3:10 p.m. ET. Colorado and San Francisco combined for 17 runs on Wednesday and 11 on Tuesday. The Rockies are sending Anthony Senzatela (1-10, 6.68 ERA) to the mound, while his counterpart for the Giants is expected to be Hayden Birdsong (3-1, 2.55 ERA). SportsLine is projecting this game to finish with 10.2 total runs scored. Before making any other MLB picks or building any MLB parlay cards, you’ll want to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer simulation model. You can also check out our MLB prop picks, MLB home run picks for Thursday, and Rangers vs. Twins picks for Thursday’s matinee..
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 12 of the 2025 MLB season on a 27-23 run on top-rated MLB sides picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks, returning more than 35 units of profit over the past two months. Anybody following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.
The model has broken down the MLB odds for Thursday and just revealed its top picks and MLB player props. Combining the model’s four picks into an MLB parlay would result in a payout of +1249 (risk $100 to win $1,249). New users can even take advantage of the DraftKings promo code offering $300 in bonus bets instantly with a $5 wager.
Here are its best bets for the MLB slate on Thursday.
- Byron Buxton over 1.5 total bases (-119)
- Jung Hoo Lee under 1.5 total hits (-115)
- Washington Nationals (+1.5) on the run line (-103) vs. New York Mets
- Rockies-Giants under 11 runs (-101)
- Combine these picks for a shot at a +1249 payout (odds subject to change)
Byron Buxton over 1.5 total bases (-119)
Buxton hasn’t quite lived up to his status as the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 MLB Draft after being considered by many scouts to be a can’t-miss prospect, but he has proven to be an above average hitter in the Majors. The 31-year-old enters Thursday batting .279 with 11 home runs and 41 RBI. Buxton has gone over in total bases in nine of his last 15 games with an impressive average of 1.7 total bases per game.
Jung Hoo Lee under 1.5 total hits (-115)
With an over/under of 11 runs, the Rockies vs. Giants matchup is projected to be the highest-scoring game in the league on Thursday. Lee enters Thursday batting .275 with six home runs, but has recorded multiple hits in only one of his last eight games. Furthermore, over the span of 10 games where the Giants have been favored, Lee has gone under his total hits market 8 times, maintaining an average of 0.7 total hits per game during that stretch.
Washington Nationals (+1.5) on the run line (-103) vs. New York Mets
The Mets have won five straight games, including the first two games of this series. On paper, the Mets have a significant edge at starting pitcher, but the Nationals are projected to keep this game closer than expected. The SportsLine Projection Model is predicting a final score of 5.4-4.2 in the Mets’ favor, with the Nationals covering in 58% of computer simulations.
Rockies-Giants under 11 runs (-101)
Every game played at Coors Field has the potential to be a high-scoring affair. On Wednesday night, these teams combined for 17 runs in what was the highest-scoring game of the day. Projected Colorado starter Anthony Senzatela has struggled in 2025, but San Francisco starter Hayden Birdsong has flashed glimpses of potential future stardom in his second season in the Majors. The SportsLine Projection Model is called for this game to go Under, with 10.2 combined runs scored, a 5.9-4.3 final score in the Giants’ favor.
Want more MLB picks for today?
You’ve seen some of the model’s MLB best bets for Thursday. Now, get run line, total and money-line picks for every game here, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
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You can also see today’s top MLB picks from expert Matt Severance, who’s on a sizzling 153-79 roll on his last 232 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his best plays for today, all from the expert who’s up more than 21 units.
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