The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to continue their historic start to the 2025 NBA playoffs when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies for Game 3 of their first-round matchup on Thursday. OKC leads the series, 2-0, and its plus-70 point differential thus far is the second-largest in NBA history through the first two games of any postseason series. The Grizzlies, however, have played well at home recently as they’ve won their last two at FedExForum by a combined 49 points.
Tipoff is at 9:30 p.m. ET from the FedExForum in Memphis, Tenn. OKC is a 10-point favorite in the latest Grizzlies vs. Thunder odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 227. Before locking in any Thunder vs. Grizzlies picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2025 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 156-116 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning nearly $4,000. It is also 22-11 (67%) on top-rated NBA against-the-spread picks this season. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has simulated Oklahoma City vs. Memphis 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Grizzlies vs. Thunder:
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies spread: Thunder -10 at FanDuel Sportsbook
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies over/under: 227 points
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies money line: OKC -460, MEM +360
- MEM: The Over has hit in each of the last four Grizzlies home games
- OKC: The Thunder have covered the spread in their last six contests
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Thunder vs. Grizzlies streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why the Thunder can cover
Counting both the regular and postseason, Oklahoma City has now defeated Memphis in 11 straight games. The last six of those have all come by double-digits, and OKC boasts a 10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) record during this run. Even with an average margin of victory of 35 points over the first two games of this series, there is room for improvement for the Thunder, and namely their best player and MVP favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The 2024-25 scoring champion is averaging just 21.7 points on 33.3% shooting in the 2025 NBA playoffs, after putting up 32.7 points on 51.9% shooting in the regular season. He averaged over 30 points per game in last year’s 10-game playoff run, so he’s not someone who shrinks on this stage, and he has a history of torching the Grizzlies. During four regular-season matchups, Gilgeous-Alexander’s 36.3 points versus Memphis was his second highest versus any NBA team he played at least three times. See which team to back at SportsLine.
Why the Grizzlies can cover
Memphis will be much more comfortable at home as, despite being the 8-seed in the West, just four other Western Conference teams had better home records than the Grizzlies. Memphis averages 3.4 more points at home than on the road, while also shooting a higher FG percentage and allowing a lower FG percentage in its home arena. While the Grizzlies were winless versus OKC in the 2024-25 regular season, two of those games came without Ja Morant, and one was without Jaren Jackson Jr. The Grizzlies were 31-18 this season with both in the starting lineup, compared to 17-16 when at least one was missing.
While OKC has looked like a juggernaut, it does have some deficiencies that play into Memphis’ strengths. Just five NBA teams commit more fouls per game than Oklahoma City, while Memphis ranks second in free throw attempts per game. Also, the Thunder rank eighth-worst in offensive rebounds allowed, while the Grizzlies are third-best at crashing the offensive glass. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Thunder vs. Grizzlies picks
SportsLine’s model has simulated Grizzlies vs. Thunder and is leaning Under on the point total, projecting 219 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s NBA picks.
So who wins Thunder vs. Grizzlies, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Grizzlies vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
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