As we talk about a lot in the Fantasy Baseball industry, the term sleeper has become more synonymous with undervalued than anything else. It’s really hard to sneak any true “sleepers” past league mates at this point. It does appear there is one market inefficiency, however. Every year, there are players who emerge out of nowhere. Oftentimes, there’s a lot of skepticism with these players, and sometimes that goes too far.
I believe that’s the case with Trevor Rogers and Andrew Vaughn. They technically re-emerged on new teams last season, but, as we can see by their average draft position, the drafting public does not believe in what they did. And to be fair, the drafting public is sharper than ever before! They might be right about players like this. With that said, I see enough in the numbers to believe in these two in particular. Below, I have five names total that I believe are currently undervalued. I also updated my Sleepers 1.0, which I wrote back in January, if you’d like to take a look at those!
As mentioned above, there aren’t many true “sleepers” anymore, but Trevor Rogers feels like one of them. Rogers burst onto the scene back in 2021, but it has been a major struggle since then. He was traded over to the Orioles in 2024, but it wasn’t until last year that we saw him regain that ace form. In 18 starts, he posted a 1.81 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP. He went at least six innings in 13 of 18 starts and was a legitimate league-winner down the stretch. So, how is he a sleeper then? Nobody seems to believe in what Rogers did, as his ADP is currently outside of the top-150.
I understand skepticism. There will be regression to his BABIP and strand rate. However, even if Rogers regresses to a mid 3’s ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, he’s a great value where he’s going in drafts. How did he get back to this level? We saw a velocity jump, pitch-mix change, and improved control. Rogers averaged 93.1 MPH on his fastball, up from 91.9 in 2024. It’s a small sample so far in spring training, but Rogers’ velocity has carried over to this point. He also introduced a new sweeper, which he used seven percent of the time, and it was a dominant pitch for him. I believe the main thing we have to watch with Rogers is his control. Last season, he allowed just 2.4 BB/9 with a seven percent walk rate, compared to 3.4 BB/9 and a nine percent walk rate for his career. If he can keep those walks down and the velocity up, I think Rogers will remain a viable pitcher and is currently a value where he’s being drafted.
As a general rule in Fantasy, you should be looking to buy low and sell high. Buying low is what we’re doing here with Shota Imanaga. Just one year ago, Imanaga’s ADP was inside the top-70 picks. It has dropped over 100 picks year-over-year. There are some fair reasons for that. He took a big step back across the board. His whiffs and velocity went down while his hard contact and barrels allowed went up. Maybe I’m just making excuses for the guy, but he dealt with a hamstring injury that kept him out for seven weeks. I think it’s pretty reasonable that the hamstring affected his season more than he’s letting on. Upon returning from the injury, his fastball velocity was down half a tick, and that pitch got hit a lot harder.
Good news! Imanaga has shown up this spring with improved velocity. The velocity on all of his pitches is up 2-4 MPH across the board. He still allowed three solo homers in his second spring outing, but overall, I am encouraged by this velocity gain. One thing I also really like about Imanaga is his WHIP. So far in his career, he has a 1.01 WHIP. Among pitchers with 300 innings pitched over the past two seasons, Imanaga’s 1.01 WHIP is tied for seventh-best with Joe Ryan. During that span, Imanaga’s 1.01 WHIP ranks better than Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Max Fried. Imanaga is able to maintain a low WHIP thanks to his immaculate control and fly-ball tendencies. Yes, being an extreme fly-ball pitcher will lead to home runs at times, but I believe it’s a worthwhile tradeoff. Imanaga is a good complement to a lot of those young pitchers who could be WHIP liabilities this season.
Like Rogers, Joe Musgrove feels like a pitcher that the drafting public is really sleeping on. Yes, he’s returning from Tommy John surgery, which naturally comes with questions. He’s also 17 months removed from surgery. Let me remind you of how good Musgrove was prior to the injury. From 2021-2024, Musgrove posted a 3.20 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, with 9.4 K/9. His ADP was inside the top-100 in each of 2022, 2023, and 2024. Again, I get that he’s 33 years old coming back from Tommy John surgery, but I’ll take the gamble every time with an ADP around 225.
Musgrove made his spring debut this week, too, and looked great. Yes, he allowed five hits over just two innings, but his velocity and pitch shape were very encouraging. His fastball was up to 94 MPH and had three more inches of induced vertical break compared to the last time we saw him. There are no limitations, either. The Padres let Musgrove throw 60 pitches in this first start. If you look at their rotation, they need all the help they can get. As a result, they will have to lean on their top three in Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and Musgrove. I don’t believe Musgrove will return all the way to his previous form, but I expect a mid-high 3’s ERA, 1.15-1.20 WHIP, and just under a strikeout per inning. If he achieves those numbers, he’s a solid value where he’s currently being drafted.
Caleb Durbin had a very solid rookie season with the Brewers, hitting .256 with 11 homers and 18 steals. He’s a unique player in today’s game as he makes a ton of contact, striking out in less than 10 percent of his plate appearances. Durbin was traded over to the Red Sox this offseason, and I love that fit for his swing. We’re talking about a right-handed bat with a 20 percent pulled-air rate playing half of his games in Fenway Park. While it might not result in more homers for Durbin, I do expect the batting average to go up as he peppers the Green Monster with fly balls. Check out his spray chart from last year with an overlay of Fenway Park.
Baseball Savant
Those gray circles in left field were outs from last season. I count at least 12 batted balls that would have either gone over or off of the Green Monster in that spray chart. I also think there’s a good chance he walks more this season. Durbin isn’t overly aggressive swinging the bat and clearly has a good eye. He rarely chases pitches out of the strike zone and regularly posted strong walk rates in the minors. Let me be clear about this. I don’t believe Durbin has incredible upside, but I do think he’s an easy profit where he’s being drafted. I’m thinking he gets the batting average up over .270 with an OBP around .360, 10 homers, and 20-25 steals. I think he’s a good target as a corner infielder in Roto leagues or as a last-resort third baseman in a H2H points league.
Andrew Vaughn is the last name on this list, and he’s another that people do not seem to be buying. Well, the Brewers bought low last season, and it worked out in a major way. In 64 games, Vaughn hit .308 with nine homers, 46 RBI, and an .869 OPS. With the Brewers, Vaughn did a great job refining his plate discipline and doing damage with his swings. He cut down the strikeout rate and posted a robust 91.7 average exit velocity. Vaughn got off to a blazing start, too. He joined the team in July and posted a 1.157 OPS. He then struggled in August (.695 OPS) before bouncing back in September (.942 OPS).
One thing to pay attention to is his performance against right-handed pitching. Vaughn had massive splits last season, posting an .859 OPS against lefties but just a .661 mark against righties. He even lost playing time against some righties down the stretch with the Brewers. I think those splits are overblown, however. Vaughn has hit lefties better than righties in his career, but the gap is not usually that wide. My expectation is that he’ll start the season as an everyday player with the Brewers, but if he struggles against righties, then he’ll start to lose playing time. Like Durbin, I don’t think Vaughn has massive upside, but he just feels like an easy profit late in drafts. Even if he’s just the hitter he was with the White Sox in previous years, he’ll pay off this value and then some. I’m expecting a .250-.260 batting average with 20ish homers and good counting stats in that Brewers lineup, and there is some slight upside in case he just carries over the huge batting average he posted with the Brewers late last season.
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