Very few professional athletes will admit they listen to the outside chatter about them, especially during the NBA playoffs, but the last time Karl-Anthony Towns took the court, he played like someone ready to silence any critics. Towns scored 11 points in the first quarter of New York’s 119-81 close-out victory over the Boston Celtics on Friday and finished the contest with 21 points on a series-high 20 field-goal attempts. The Knicks will begin their Eastern Conference Finals series against the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday in a rematch of a conference semifinals series from last year, which the Pacers won in seven games, but the Knicks didn’t have Towns yet in that series. Towns could give you value in the Wednesday NBA player props, even above players like Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Haliburton. You can enter pregame NBA props on betting apps up until Wednesday’s 8 p.m. ET tipoff from Madison Square Garden. Towns could also be popular pieces of a Knicks vs. Pacers same-game parlay at online betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. One of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value for today’s slate. The NBA odds could change, so act now for maximum value. You can find more analysis from Oh and other SportsLine data analysts on their Inside The Lines blog.
Best Knicks vs. Pacers Game 1 NBA props:
- Pascal Siakam Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 assists (-125)
- Mitchell Robinson Under 6.5 rebounds (+126)
Pascal Siakam Over 28.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
Siakam went Over this total in each of the final two games of Indiana’s series against the Cavaliers, capping off their five-game series victory with 21 points, eight rebounds and five assists on Tuesday. The 31-year-old having more than a week off should benefit his recovery and potentially lead to an expanded workload in Game 1 on Wednesday after playing a series-high 40 minutes in Game 5. The model projects a PRA of 32 for Siakam on Wednesday, and he’s gone Over this total in 63.6% of games this season. Oh notes Siakam has been even better against the Knicks lately, going Over this PRA total in 10 of 14 matchups against New York over the last two years.
“His balanced stat line in the Cavaliers series —consistent scoring, rebounding, and assisting—makes him a reliable Over candidate, especially since he’s rarely double-teamed and benefits from Halliburton drawing defensive attention,” Oh said. “In the Cavs series, his points ranged from 17 to 21 in four of the five games. His rebounds ranged from 6-8 in four of the five and his assists were between 3-5 in all five games.” FanDuel Sportsbook is currently offering Over 28.5 PRA at -120 odds, and signing up using a FanDuel promo code can limit your risk on a first wager.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 assists (-125)
Towns never had more than one assist in New York’s six games against Boston, but as mentioned above, the 29-year-old came out with a different aggression in Game 6. The Knicks will certainly encourage their five-time All-Star forward to do the same on Wednesday. Aggression doesn’t always need to mean a high-scoring volume though, and after Towns averaged 3.1 assists per game during the regular season, the model projects that version of Towns to show itself in Game 1. The model projects 2.9 assists for Towns on Wednesday.
He had five assists against the Pacers on February 11 in his last game against Indiana. Cleveland center Jarrett Allen had multiple assists in two of his five games against the Pacers last series, despite averaging just 1.9 assists per game during the season. Towns should be able to create offense from passes both inside and outside the paint to shooters and cutters on Wednesday. BetMGM is offering the best odds at -125 for Towns, and new users can take advantage of the latest BetMGM promo code.
Mitchell Robinson Under 6.5 rebounds (+120)
Robinson went Over this total in five of six games against the Celtics last series, but in Game 6 with a stronger performance from Towns and Josh Hart adding 11 rebounds, Robinson finished with just four rebounds in 14 minutes off the bench. Given how matchup-dependent Robinson is for how much playing time he’ll receive, playing Robinson Overs in Game 1 of any series can be a risk. Robinson played 12 minutes off the bench in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Pacers last year before suffering a season-ending ankle injury and he didn’t play against the Pacers this year due to injury.
The Knicks went with a starter’s heavy approach in Game 6 against the Celtics, which limited Robinson to just 14 minutes, and you can’t argue the game results as the Knicks won by 38 points. New York hasn’t played since Friday, so the extended rest could lead to coach Tom Thibodeau implementing a similar game plan in Game 1. The model projects Robinson for 5.9 rebounds over 19 minutes and sees value in this play at plus-money odds. A Caesars Sportsbook promo code for new users or anyone with an account already can make this play at +120 odds, the best odds currently available on the market.
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