Daniel Berger extended his lead at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational to five shots on Friday, as he backed up his opening 63 with a second round 68 to move to 13 under and create some serious separation from the field.
If there were any question of how Berger would handle his first 18-hole lead on the PGA Tour in four years, he answered the bell quickly with a birdie on the 1st hole and another on the par-5 6th to push himself to double figures under par and eliminate any hopes from the field that he’d come back to them on Friday.
Whatever Berger’s swing thought has been this week, it’s working wonderfully for him in some incredibly challenging conditions at Bay Hill. He spoke about that challenge after his second round, highlighting that he probably hit the ball better in his Friday 68 than his Thursday 63. But as the greens continue firming and quickening up, it’s getting harder and harder to create really good birdie opportunities.
“I feel like I hit ’em better today and the score wasn’t quite as low,” Berger said. “But yeah, it’s just one of those courses. It’s treacherous. You just got to stay patient and take what the course gives you, and when you have an opportunity, you got to take advantage because there’s not that many of ’em out there.”
Berger has been dialed with every facet of his game through the first two rounds, currently sitting in the top 10 in strokes gained off the tee (7th), approach (2nd) and putting (3rd). That’s the definition of a well-rounded performance, and it’s allowed him to pull away from the field with a massive lead going into the weekend.
The advantage Berger has going into the weekend is that he can more easily remain patient with his five-shot lead, where those chasing him will have to take on more risk in an effort to close the gap. At the same time, he’ll have to contend with a course that figures to only get tougher as he tries to handle the nerves of playing with the lead on the weekend for the first time in four years.
The place those nerves figure to come into play the most is on the greens. They were already glassy on Friday, and with no rain in the forecast and winds picking up, they’ll likely only continue to dry out and get tougher.
“It’s so easy to get them running 6, 7, 8, 9 feet by the hole,” Berger said. “They are lightning quick, like, borderline, you know, too quick. Like, when you put the putter down, you almost — there’s no friction. The putter just wants to slide. So it’s a fantastic challenge. It feels like a U.S. Open.”
As he prepares for a weekend with the lead, he knows the formula is simple to converting his five-shot lead into a fifth PGA Tour win.
“It’s fairways and greens, and if you can do that, it’s hard for guys to catch you,” Berger said. “So that’s going to be the challenge is to hit a bunch of fairways and a bunch of greens over the next couple days.”
The leader
1. Daniel Berger (-13)
Getting to 13 under after 36 holes on this course in these conditions is pretty wild. At some point, you’d have to think Berger will run into some adversity, but with the way he’s striking the ball this week, there’s nothing that indicates he’s going to come backwards too much. This isn’t some otherworldly putting performance covering for some other shaky elements of his game, he’s just been flat out dominant from tee to green. Based on what Sam Saunders said on the Golf Channel broadcast, they seem comfortable pushing the greens to the limits to really challenge these guys on the weekend, and while that does create some concern for Berger, it also means it’s going to be really hard for everyone to produce a low round to make a big run at him.
Other contenders
2. Akshay Bhatia (-8)
T3. Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Åberg, Sahith Theegala (-7)
6. Rickie Fowler (-6)
T7. Russell Henley, Xander Schauffele (-5)
T9. Rory McIlroy and five others (-4)
T15. Scottie Scheffler and four others (-3)
The low round of the day came from Akshay Bhatia. Despite a shaky driver performance, Bhatia tore it up on his way to a 66 thanks to some strong iron play and a phenomenal round on and around the greens. He continues to pop up on signature event leaderboards to start this season, and if he can stay hot with the putter, he’ll give himself a chance to reel in Berger.
Theegala also had a fantastic Friday, shooting a 5-under 67 that moved him into contention as he continues to show improved form in 2026. Morikawa and Åberg each had designs of going low and pulling closer to Berger, but a couple early bogeys for Morikawa and a mid-round stumble from Åberg kept them from making up any ground on the leader.
Fowler continued his steady play this season, and while he might need help from Berger, if the leader does start backing up, Fowler’s playing the kind of rock solid golf that could slowly creep into the mix on Sunday. The defending champ, Russell Henley, dropped a shot late but is once again headed for a top-10 finish at Bay Hill, tied with Xander Schauffele who likewise seems to be back on an upward trend.
Then there’s the group who will be in the mix if Berger backs up considerably on Saturday — or if one of them can post something low going out early before the winds hit their strongest. Headlining that group are the two top players in the world. Rory McIlroy found a late kick on the back nine to shoot 68 and move into the top 10, while Scottie Scheffler stumbled late with a frustrating three-putt bogey on the 18th (chucking his ball in the water after) to shoot 71 and fall 10 shots off the pace.
Those two will need something special on the weekend to truly apply pressure to Berger, but if anyone of that group has the firepower to get in the mix, they figure to be the prime candidates.
Notable players to miss the cut
- J.J. Spaun (+3)
- Shane Lowry (+3)
- Sam Burns (+4)
- Patrick Cantlay (+4)
- Justin Rose (+6)
- Justin Thomas (+14)
After last week’s heartbreak, Lowry struggled to get back going in the first two rounds this week, and a bogey on No. 18 on Friday cost him the weekend. Rose started the second round at 2 under, but a shocking 80 on Friday dropped him well outside the cut line. And then there was Justin Thomas, who shot back-to-back 79s in his first tournament action since back surgery in November, as Bay Hill presented him with an extremely tough test for his return to PGA Tour competition.
Updated 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds, picks
- Daniel Berger (+110)
- Collin Morikawa (15/2)
- Ludvig Åberg (19/2)
- Akshay Bhatia (10-1)
- Scottie Scheffler (13-1)
- Rory McIlroy (18-1)
It’s really hard to pick against the guy with a 5-shot lead, but 36 holes is a lot of time for things to go wrong and I do think there could be some value going into Saturday with some longer odds. The way Bhatia’s been playing all year, I think he presents a bit of value at 10-1 in solo second currently. I also think Rickie Fowler will keep plugging along and if Berger backs up on a difficult Saturday, he could find his way into the mix and see his odds shorten from 22-1.
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