2026 AFC Championship Game odds, predictions: Broncos vs. Patriots picks from expert on 58-38 run

The 2026 AFC Championship Game will welcome back some conference powers who have been away for several years as the top-seeded Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots on Sunday. These franchises rank in the top three of all-time AFC title game appearances, but this is just the second NFL playoff appearance for Denver since its 2015 Super Bowl run. The Patriots, meanwhile, have rapidly rebuilt under first-year coach and franchise legend Mike Vrabel, and they are set to return to the AFC title game for the first time since 2018. Jarrett Stidham will start at quarterback for Denver after Bo Nix broke his ankle in the divisional round. 

Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High is set for 3 p.m. ET. New England is a 4.5-point road favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is 43.5. Before making any Broncos vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL playoff predictions from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall.

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For years Vegas-based Bruce Marshall was synonymous with The Gold Sheet, the famed sports betting newsletter. With a background in play-by-play work and sports information while in college, Bruce joined TGS in 1981 when hired by the legendary Mort Olshan and served as executive editor for many years. Marshall has crushed his NFL picks, going 58-38-2 (+1494) in his last 98 NFL against the spread picks. Anybody following his NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.    

Now, Marshall has set his sights on Broncos vs. Patriots. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Patriots vs. Broncos:

Why the Patriots can cover

New England has a golden opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl thanks in large part to Nix’s injury. The hypothetical lookahead lines for this game had Denver listed as a small favorite, so Nix’s injury certainly changed the outlook in a major way. The Patriots have handled the Chargers and Texans without too much difficulty, defeating both by double digits. The Pats have also been beating market expectations all season as they led the NFL with a 13-5-1 record against the spread, and they were 7-1 ATS on the road. Denver, meanwhile, went just 8-10 ATS this season. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why the Broncos can cover

Stidham is a competent backup who started multiple games for Sean Payton in 2023, so the drop off might not be as large as the odds shift is indicating. Denver can also lean on a stout defense that ranked second in the NFL in total defense and third in scoring defense this season. Denver’s overall spread numbers aren’t as strong as New England’s, but the Broncos were 5-1 ATS as an underdog and 3-0 ATS as a home underdog, and now they’re getting more than a field goal in one of the league’s toughest places to play. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Broncos vs. Patriots picks

Marshall is going Over on the total. He’s also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. You can only get his pick at SportsLine. 

So who covers in Patriots vs. Broncos, and what critical x-factor do you need to know about? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert who is on a sizzling 58-38 run on NFL spread picks, and find out.