2025 NFL Draft: Ranking the quarterback prospects based on a college football performance formula

Quarterback is the most important position on a football team. That’s why we see teams “overreach” for quarterbacks in the NFL Draft or “overpay” for them in free agency on an annual basis. It’s also why we see an unlimited amount of resources put into figuring out how to evaluate quarterback play, because if you get it right, you can set your franchise up for a decade of success.

If you get it wrong, it can set your franchise back a decade and likely lead to a change in who gets to flip the coin on the next QB.

Back in 2012, I decided to see if I could crack the code about evaluating a QB based on their college performance. The fact I’m here continuing this exercise in 2025 is proof that I’ve failed to do so. But, while I haven’t solved the puzzle, I have stumbled upon a formula that’s proven to be a useful tool in evaluating these players.

The formula doesn’t consider a quarterback’s rushing ability; it’s strictly based on their ability to throw the football. I break it down into three situations: performance against top-50 defenses, performance in third-and-long/fourth-down situations and performance in the red zone. These are the areas that more closely resemble the situations QBs will face at the NFL level.

What I’ve discovered is that while the formula cannot predict greatness, it has a knack for finding guys who will stick around in the NFL for a while. It’s also done a good job of figuring out who’s likely to bust.

Before we get into the details, what do you say we take a look at how the 2025 draft class fared?

A quick explanation on the Fornelli Rating: It’s a comparison of how that player’s score compares to the current class. I do this because QB play improves at the college level every year — my data supports this, as the average scores increase annually — so we learn a lot more about the individual prospect by comparing them directly to their contemporaries. As you can see, Shedeur Sanders has a score of 3.93%, which means he scored 3.93% higher than the average score. Quinn Ewers’ score of -4.41% means he was 4.41% below it.

Now, this is where things get interesting. You’ve no doubt heard everything there is to hear about how this year’s QB crop isn’t outstanding. My numbers support this theory. While Sanders has the highest score in this class, his 3.93% rating ranks only 31st all-time since I began doing this in 2012 (166 QBs total). For context, Caleb Williams led the 2024 class with a grade of 8.98%, which ranked 5th all-time. J.J. McCarthy checked in at 11th with a score of 7.64%.

This is the first class I’ve ever graded to not include at least one top-20 QB at the time. Granted, some of that is the fact the field continues to grow, but it’s still worth pointing out.

This does not mean teams shouldn’t draft Sanders, or Cam Ward, or Jaxson Dart. Players with unremarkable scores have gone on to have good NFL careers. Jayden Daniels had a score of 2.93% last year, and I don’t think the Commanders have buyer’s remorse, nor the Bengals about Joe Burrow (3.12%).

What you don’t want to do is take a player with a below-average score.

While there are duds with positive scores and guys who seem to exceed their positive scores, the examples of players with negative scores blowing up are few and far between. But they do exist! Have you heard of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson? They had scores of -1.65% and -2.92%, respectively. What they have in common is they’re both tremendous athletes who use their legs exceptionally well, and both have developed as throwers once reaching the NFL. Another example is Jordan Love (-3.15%), who had a limited sample size of snaps against top defenses while at Utah State, and his performances in those games had a strong negative impact on his overall score.

These guys had negative scores, too: Will Levis, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Josh Rosen, Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and Drew Lock. The jury remains out on Michael Penix.

Of the players with negative scores in this class, Jalen Milroe’s name is the only one we’ve heard bandied about as a potential first-rounder, and he’ll be in attendance on Thursday night. History suggests he’s unlikely to be worth the selection, but like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, he’s an incredible athlete who covers up plenty of his deficiencies as a passer with his legs. So, who knows?

Here are some quick thoughts and breakdowns on how the scoring went for the players considered top prospects in the class.

Shedeur Sanders

Sanders’ score is an accurate reflection of how scouts would describe him. He didn’t put up truly elite numbers in any of the situations we look at, but there aren’t any glaring weaknesses, either. When broken down by section, Sanders ranked first against top-50 defenses, second in red zone situations and fourth in third/fourth downs. His scores suggest that the team that takes him will get a solid NFL option, but there’s no guarantee he’ll ever be anything more than that.

Cam Ward

Ward’s a tougher evaluation. He began his career at Incarnate Word, and none of his numbers from that level were included in the ratings because I don’t have access to the same kind of splits for the FCS level as I do for FBS football. So, the sample size isn’t huge compared to some others in the class. Like Sanders, there are no glaring red flags when comparing Ward to his counterparts. He had the highest score in third/fourth downs but was sixth in both top-50 defenses and red zone situations.

Jaxson Dart

The concern about Dart should be his overall arm strength and ability to zip balls into tight windows. The offense he played in at Ole Miss created plenty of easy throws, and his scores here show cause for concern in some spots. His completion rate was below average in third/fourth downs, and only Jalen Milroe had a lower touchdown rate in the red zone. There wasn’t anything to tank his overall score, which is why he finishes sixth, but he doesn’t rank higher than seventh in any of the three separate categories, nor is he lower than eighth in any of them.

Jalen Milroe

You’re drafting Jalen Milroe strictly on potential. Against top-50 defenses, Milroe had the worst interception rate and one of the lowest completion rates. In third/fourth downs, he had the lowest completion rate and the highest interception rate. In the red zone, he had the lowest touchdown rate and the highest interception rate. He’s the shining example of a boom-or-bust candidate in this draft class.

Other Notes

Memphis’ Seth Henigan is an intriguing option you don’t hear much about. The traits aren’t enough to warrant drafting him early, but there are the makings of a solid backup.

The knocks on Dillon Gabriel are his size and arm strength. The lack of arm strength shows in his performance in third/fourth down spots and the red zone, where windows are much tighter.

Quinn Ewers was once a highly touted recruit, and I’d love to see what he may have been if not for injuries. He was banged up a lot in college, and while I didn’t expect to be impressed by how he fared in these rankings, I was surprised to see how poorly he did. Ewers simply doesn’t have enough zip on these throws to expect him to find much success at the NFL level.

I don’t know what to make of Max Brosmer’s score. He only spent one season at the FBS level with Minnesota after having a productive career at New Hampshire. So, while the score is good, the sample size is very small compared to the rest of the class. Plus, he played in a very run-heavy offense with the Gophers.

Fornelli’s actual QB Big Board

When I put everything together, with these scores as additional data, here’s how I evaluate the 2025 draft class, which, like everybody else, does not overly impress me — particularly coming off what we were working with a year ago.

1. Cam Ward
2. Shedeur Sanders
3. Kyle McCord
4. Jaxson Dart
5. Tyler Shough
6. Jalen Milroe