2025 NBA Finals odds, Game 6 prediction: Thunder vs. Pacers picks, best bets from NBA expert on 167-91 run

The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to win their first NBA championship since relocating from Seattle when they battle the Indiana Pacers in Game 6 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Thursday. Oklahoma City grabbed a 3-2 series lead with a 120-109 win on Monday. The Thunder (68-14) are 5-4 on the road this postseason. The Pacers (50-32) are 7-3 at home during the 2025 NBA playoffs. Indiana point guard Tyrese Haliburton has a strained right calf, leaving his availability in question. 

Tip-off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Oklahoma City won five of seven meetings with Indiana this year. The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites in the latest Pacers vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 222.5. Before making any Thunder vs. Pacers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is SportsLine’s No. 1 expert and is on a huge 167-91 roll on his NBA picks that have returned more than 34 units.

Now, Severance has analyzed Thunder vs. Pacers and just revealed his coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Pacers. New users can utilize a DraftKings promo code, a FanDuel promo code or a BetMGM promo code to get started. 

Why the Thunder can cover

NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to help power Oklahoma City. In 21 playoff starts, the point guard is averaging 30.4 points, 6.5 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals in 37.1 minutes. He is coming off a double-double with 31 points and 10 assists in Game 5 on Monday. He also added four blocks, two rebounds and two steals. He had 35 points, three rebounds and three steals in a 111-104 win in Game 4.

Forward Jalen Williams also leads the Thunder. He poured in 40 points, while adding six rebounds, four assists and one steal in Monday’s win. He had 27 points, seven rebounds and three assists in the Game 4 victory. In 21 postseason starts, he is averaging 21.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, five assists and 1.4 steals in 34.8 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Pacers can cover

Power forward Pascal Siakam had a solid performance in Game 5, scoring 28 points, while adding six rebounds, five assists, three steals and two blocks. He poured in 20 points, while adding eight rebounds, five assists, five steals and one block in Game 4. He registered a double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds in a 111-110 Game 1 win at Oklahoma City. In 21 playoff starts, he is averaging 21 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.3 steals in 33.4 minutes.

Veteran center Myles Turner also helps lead the Pacers’ offense. In 21 postseason games, all starts, he is averaging 14.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.1 blocks and 1.4 assists in 29.8 minutes. He scored 13 points, while grabbing six rebounds in Game 5. He had a near double-double in the series opener, scoring 15 points, while adding nine rebounds and three blocks. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Pacers vs. Thunder picks

Now, Severance has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Game 6 of Thunder vs. Pacers. He is leaning Under the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. You should see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

So who wins Thunder vs. Pacers Game 6, and what X-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert who is up 34 units on his NBA picks, and find out.