2025 NBA Finals odds, Game 5 prediction: Pacers vs. Thunder picks, best bets from NBA expert on 166-91 run

The Indiana Pacers will look to pull off another upset on the road when they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Monday. The Pacers were victorious in Game 1 but are coming off a 111-104 defeat in Game 4. The Pacers are 5-0 in games following a loss in the 2025 NBA playoffs. Oklahoma City, meanwhile, is hoping to be the third team in the last five seasons to win the NBA Finals after trailing the series 2-1. 

Tip-off from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites in the latest Pacers vs. Thunder odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 225. Before making any Thunder vs. Pacers picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is SportsLine’s No. 1 expert and is on a huge 166-91 roll on his NBA picks that have returned more than 34 units.

Now, Severance has analyzed Pacers vs. Thunder and just revealed his coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Pacers. New users can utilize a DraftKings promo code, a FanDuel promo code or a BetMGM promo code to get started. 

Why the Thunder can cover

Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues his dominance this postseason. In 20 games, all starts, he is averaging 30.4 points, 6.3 assists, 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 steals in 37.1 minutes. He has reached 30 or more points 14 times in the 2025 NBA playoffs. He is coming off a 35-point performance in Friday’s Game 4 win, adding three steals, three rebounds and one block.

Forward Jalen Williams also helps lead the Oklahoma City offensive attack. He is coming off a series-high 27-point, seven-rebound and three-assist performance in Game 4. He had 26 points, six rebounds and three assists in a 116-107 loss to the Pacers in Game 3. In 20 postseason starts, he is averaging 20.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.5 steals in 34.8 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Pacers can cover

Power forward Pascal Siakam helps lead the Indiana offense. In 20 postseason starts, he is averaging 20.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.2 steals in 33.4 minutes. In Friday’s loss to the Thunder, he scored 20 points, while adding eight rebounds, five assists, five steals and one block. He registered a double-double in the series opener, scoring 19 points, while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out three assists.

Another key component to the Pacers’ offense is point guard Tyrese Haliburton. He has registered two double-doubles in the series and hit the game-winning shot in Game 1 with under one second left to play. In Friday’s loss, he scored 18 points, while adding seven assists and two rebounds. In 20 playoff games, all starts, he is averaging 18.6 points, 9.3 assists, 5.8 rebounds and 1.4 steals in 35.4 minutes. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Pacers vs. Thunder picks

Now, Severance has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Game 5 of Pacers vs. Thunder. He is leaning Under the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. You should see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

So who wins Thunder vs. Pacers Game 5, and what X-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert who is up 34 units on his NBA picks, and find out.