2025 NBA Finals odds, Game 4 predictions: Pacers vs. Thunder picks, best bets from expert on 166-91 run

The Oklahoma City Thunder will look to even their best-of-seven series with the Indiana Pacers when they meet in Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals on Friday. Indiana grabbed a 2-1 series lead with a 116-107 win on Wednesday. The Thunder (68-14), who had an NBA-best plus-12.9 point differential during the regular season, are 36-12 on the road this season, including 4-4 in the playoffs. The Pacers (50-32) are 35-13 on their home court, including 6-2 in the postseason.

Tip-off from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Thunder are six-point favorites in the latest Thunder vs. Pacers odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 225.5. Before making any Pacers vs. Thunder picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s Matt Severance, who is SportsLine’s No. 1 expert and is on a huge 166-91 roll on his NBA picks that have returned more than 34 units. 

Now, Severance has analyzed Thunder vs. Pacers and just revealed his coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Thunder vs. Pacers. New users can utilize a DraftKings promo code, a FanDuel promo code or a BetMGM promo code to get started. 

Why the Thunder can cover

Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the NBA MVP this season, helps power the Thunder offense. In 19 playoff starts this year, he is averaging 30.1 points, 6.6 assists, 5.7 rebounds and 1.7 steals in 36.9 minutes. He has scored 30 or more points in four of the last five games. His postseason high of 40 points came in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals in a 128-126 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. He had 38 points in Game 1 of the NBA Finals against Indiana last Thursday.

Also powering Oklahoma City is forward Jalen Williams. In 19 postseason games, all starts, he is averaging 20.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.5 steals in 34.7 minutes. He is coming off a 26-point, six-rebound and three-assist performance on Wednesday. He has reached double-digit scoring in 18 of 19 playoff games, including nine in a row. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Pacers can cover

Power forward Pascal Siakam is coming off a 21-point, six-rebound, four-assist and two-steal effort in the Game 3 win over the Thunder. In 19 postseason games, all starts, he is averaging 20.6 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists and one steal in 33.3 minutes. He registered a double-double in the series opener, scoring 19 points and adding 10 rebounds with three assists. He poured in 31 points in the Game 6 win over the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Also helping power Indiana is point guard Tyrese Haliburton. He is coming off a near triple-double in Wednesday’s Game 3 win. In 36 minutes of action, he scored 22 points, while adding 11 assists, nine rebounds and two steals. He also had a double-double in the series opener, scoring 14 points, including the game-winning shot with 0.3 seconds remaining. He added 10 rebounds and six assists. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Pacers vs. Thunder picks

Now, Severance has locked in another confident against-the-spread pick for Pacers vs. Thunder. He is leaning Under the total, but he knows a crucial X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back. You should see what it is before locking in any picks of your own.

So who wins Thunder vs. Pacers Game 4, and what X-factor makes one side of the spread hit hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the expert who is up 34 units on his NBA picks, and find out.