Welcome to Opening Day. Yeah, it’s the branded version of Opening Day, because the 2025 MLB season has technically already started. Remember, the Cubs and Dodgers played twice in Japan with the Dodgers taking both games. We actually got off to a good start here in best bets, going 2-1 in the opener.
We’re now treated to 14 games on Thursday and it’s a bit easier to find plays to love with so many games. Still, it’s incredibly difficult to bet baseball and it’s even tougher at the start of the season before we have true samples of data that are current. Please keep this in mind if you’re new and thinking of diving in.
I’m not new, so I’m diving. Here are my three favorites plays on Opening Day in addition to discussing some others that piqued my interest.
(Lines courtesy of DraftKings)
The futures props with Skenes might’ve gotten a bit out of control with him being the favorite to win the Cy Young and lead the majors in strikeouts, but he’s facing a terrible Marlins team here on Opening Day and I’m willing to take on a high level of juice to wager that he gets to seven strikeouts in this one.
Out of 23 starts last season, Skenes struck out at least seven 16 times. In four of the other seven, he struck out six. Another one of those was his last outing when he only pitched two innings, striking out three. He faced the Marlins once and struck out nine in six innings.
The Marlins in general are unfamiliar with Skenes as a team and when a pitcher of his caliber hasn’t seen an opponent much, that’s a major advantage for the guy on the mound. Here’s what Brewers star Christian Yelich told me about Skenes last July:
“He’s really advanced for his age. He obviously has great stuff but there’s guys throughout the league who have great stuff, too. He knows how to use it, how to pitch, especially for being so young. He has a good idea of what he’s doing out there.
Not downplaying 100, but you see 100 a lot. There’s a lot of guys who throw 100, but he’s not up there just ripping 100. He’s pitching. And when you have 100 in the tank, too, that’s when it’s a little different. He was changing speeds with us, [the sinker] was anywhere from 91 to 95-96 and his fastball is 100. He knows how to use his arsenal, it kind of seemed like he knew what he was doing, setting us up. He was pretty advanced.”
Skenes worked as high as 85 pitches this spring and threw just 51 in a tune-up on March 22. He’s fully functional and will dominate this weak Marlins offense on Opening Day.
First things first, just keep in mind a 5-3 or 6-2 game gets us home here and those aren’t really “high-scoring” games in feel. This is to say that we don’t need a slugfest to win this play. These two teams are plenty capable of slugfests, though.
I’m fully on board with the Rangers bouncing back from a down year as an offense last year. Whether the disaster that was Adolis García and Evan Carter or the expectation that Marcus Semien and Wyatt Langford can be better, there’s plenty of room here for a great Rangers offense.
I also expect the Red Sox to have a very powerful offense. Adding to Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are a full season from Trevor Story and Triston Casas (at least they hope so) along with Alex Bregman.
Garrett Crochet is great and gets the ball for the Red Sox. The Rangers hit him fine last season (two runs on four hits in four innings) and I don’t expect him to work too deep into the game before a hittable Red Sox bullpen takes over.
All the same, Nathan Eovaldi gets hit at times, such as on Aug. 4, when the Red Sox in Texas tagged him for five runs on seven hits in five innings.
I like some scoring here. I was prepared to go over 8.5 if need be.
The Nationals are not a total pushover this year and I think they’ll be a pest to the top three teams in the NL East in the Braves, Mets and these Phillies. Still, the Phils are a much better team and have the much better pitcher here. Zack Wheeler is on the mound for the Phillies and he’s one of the best — if not the best — pitchers in baseball. He’s a workhorse, too. The one time he pitched in Nationals Ballpark last year, he struck out 11 in 6 ⅓ dominant innings. MacKenzie Gore has had some good outings against the Phillies, but he was also torched by them on Aug. 17 last year. It’s more than the starting pitchers, obviously, as the Phillies have a much better lineup than the Nationals and also a more talented back-end of the bullpen.
I’m not necessarily saying this will be a blowout, but we only would need something like 4-2 Phillies.
Just a little sprinkle …
These aren’t “official” plays, but they are some other items that caught my eye and I’d support dialing back the units on them.
- I like the starters to strike out a lot of hitters in Los Angeles. The Tigers have plenty of players who whiff a lot and are lefty-heavy. They face Blake Snell, who strikes batters out with the best of ’em when he’s on. The Tigers counter with last season’s strikeout leader, Tarik Skubal. Some of the Dodgers’ best hitters are lefties and Skubal hasn’t seen them much. The line for both is 6.5 and I’d lean over for both.
- I have a feeling the Reds’ offense is going to be better this season and they are playing at home on Opening Day, which is always a big deal in Cincinnati with the parade and everything. Logan Webb is on the hill for the Giants and he’s great, but he’s also far less great away from Oracle Park. The Reds’ team total is 3.5 and it sure feels like they can score at least four runs.
- Finally, I already took the over on their win total, so maybe I’m getting a bit too caught up in it, but I really toyed with playing the White Sox to win on the moneyline (+130). The Angels aren’t very good — yes, I’m aware the White Sox are worse — and it’s in Chicago. These White Sox are gonna be hungry to erase the historically awful taste from last year and Opening Day starter Sean Burke is interesting.
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