2025 MLB Draft: Predicting which new draftee could be the first to make his major-league debut

Major League Baseball’s amateur draft wrapped up on Monday after more than 20 rounds and 600 selections. The Washington Nationals kicked off the festivities on Sunday, selecting Oklahoma prep shortstop Eli Willits with the third No. 1 overall choice in franchise history. (The Nationals had previously plucked right-hander Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Bryce Harper in the 2009-10 events.) While Willits was the best prospect in the class coming into the draft, one thing is certain about his career: he won’t be the first player to reach the majors.

Rather, part of Willits’ appeal to the Nationals — and indeed to public analysts like myself — was his extreme youth. He won’t celebrate his 18th birthday until December, making him nearly 10 months younger than Ethan Holliday, another prep infielder from Oklahoma who went fourth overall to the Colorado Rockies. Willits’ young age is a perk and could allow him, in due time, to develop into a star-caliber shortstop. But, again, it does mean the race to the majors is a wide open one for the field.

So, just which draftees seem likeliest to reach the majors first? Here are five contenders.

1. Tyler Bremner, RHP, Los Angeles Angels (No. 2)

Bremner was the biggest surprise of the top five, leapfrogging a crowded group to become the top pitcher selected. He’s a changeup artist whose fastball improved in-season; clearly the Angels felt that his issues (mostly the need for a better breaking pitch) weren’t worth sweating. I suppose that’s a good and a bad thing for him, since he probably won’t be afforded much time in the minors to coin a new offering — no matter what impact it may have on his performance once he arrives.

The Angels have regularly placed their first-round picks on the fast track to the majors under general manager Perry Minasian’s watch. Shortstop Zach Neto and second baseman Christian Moore both debuted within a year of being selected, and first baseman Nolan Schanuel required just a month. (Even oft-injured righty Sam Bachman climbed the ladder within two years.) That’s without mentioning righty Ryan Johnson, who debuted without a single minor-league rep to his credit.

I doubt Bremner will reach The Show this year — though I suppose the Angels could get froggy if they remain in the wild-card hunt into the latter stages of the season. I have to imagine he’ll be up by next July, however, and that’s likely a conservative timeline given the precedent established by Minasian.

2. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Athletics (No. 11)

Arnold, who entered the spring ranked as my No. 1 prospect in the class, failed to match his brilliant 2024 campaign and slipped behind two arms (both represented below) in my final rankings. No matter, he has the ingredients to be an above-average big-league starter thanks to a full arsenal (led by two quality fastballs and a slider) and a flat release point to the top of the strike zone.

The Athletics don’t have the Angels’ track record of shipping their best prospects to the majors seemingly overnight, but they’re starting to get there. Shortstop Jacob Wilson, the team’s first-round pick in 2024, required just more than a year before hitting The Show. First baseman Nick Kurtz, conversely, went from being the No. 4 pick last summer to the majors this April. As long as Arnold stays healthy, he has a chance to blaze a similar trail all the way to … well, for now, Sacramento. 

Wood was the wild card of the draft. On a talent basis, he might go down as the best pitcher in the class. The problem is that talent isn’t the only variable involved in these matters. I have to imagine that he lasted until the penultimate pick of the first round because of concerns teams had about his durability. (Mind you, he was limited to fewer than 40 innings this season because of a shoulder issue.)

Dave Dombrowski earned a reputation for moving prospects quickly during his time overseeing the Detroit Tigers front office. Rick Porcello debuted less than a year and a half after being plucked from high school and Jacob Turner was essentially on that same timeline. The Phillies haven’t been nearly as aggressive, but maybe that can be credited to the fact that Wood is the first collegiate player they’ve drafted in the first round since Bryson Stott back in 2019.

Whatever the case, I do think the Phillies have added incentive to push Wood along at a hastened pace. This is pure speculation on my part and it could be a misread of the situation, but if he’s not in the majors within a year, I think it’ll be because of injury rather than organizational intent.

I ranked Anderson as the best pitcher in the class. I don’t expect him to spend much time on Seattle’s farm because he already possesses four above-average pitches and he was thoroughly vetted by SEC bats, meaning there’s little to be gained by taking it slow with him. 

Even so, Jerry Dipoto hasn’t made a habit out of rushing his top picks through the minors. George Kirby and Emerson Hancock were both first-round collegiate arms who spent at least one full season in the minors before breaking through. I’ll concede that the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign might have elongated their paths, but switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje is yet to reach Double-A after being chosen 15th overall last summer.

Maybe Anderson moves through the system at a greater velocity, but this one might take a little longer than appears likely to at first blush.

Doyle was the No. 2 pitcher in my rankings, behind Anderson. He’s a fascinating prospect: a fastball obsessive with an elite heater in a day and age where teams shy away from that approach. Doyle has other pitches; he just didn’t need to use them. What he doesn’t have, unfortunately, is a lengthy track record of starting. The Cardinals, then, might feel the need to slow-play his ascent.

Recent history indicates the Cardinals might have done that regardless. Everyone remembers how quickly they pushed Michael Wacha through the minors, but that was more than a decade ago. In recent times, they let first-round arms like Zack Thompson (nearly three years), Michael McGreevy (more than three years), and Cooper Hjerpe (hasn’t yet debuted three years on) ripen on the vine before plucking and adding them to their big-league batch of arms.

As with Anderson, it’s wholly possible that Doyle — a superior prospect to the trio of names above — makes landfall in St. Louis ahead of schedule. It just might not be the near-instant arrival that some of his peers enjoy over the coming months.