2025 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks against the spread, odds in Friday’s Sweet 16

The final spots in the Elite Eight will be determined Friday night at two regional sites featuring No. 1 and No. 2 seeds. There may not be a Cinderella or a seed lower than No. 6, but the slate still features college basketball’s elite. Upsets are fun early, but when a champion is crowned in San Antonio, this is the kind of gauntlet a title winner should navigate.

The four games include the Big Ten regular-season champion, the SEC regular-season champion, the Big 12 Tournament and regular-season champion, the Big Ten Tournament champion, last year’s national runner-up and two additional head coaches with Final Four appearances since 2019. That’s not to mention Kentucky, arguably the bluest blue blood in the sport. The Wildcats are riding high under the leadership of first-year head coach and former national champion player Mark Pope. These are heavyweights, so while there’s no Saint Peter’s or Oral Roberts, there won’t be many complaints about the matchups.

The first South Region semifinal in Atlanta features Michigan State coach Tom Izzo matching wits with Ole Miss’ Chris Beard. These two coaches met in the Final Four in 2019 when Beard was at Texas Tech. The Red Raiders clamped down on the Spartans that day, holding them to 51 points. Michigan State will look for revenge in a hostile pro-SEC arena and continue its run after its best regular season since that 2019 campaign.

The early Midwest Region game also has SEC flavor, as Tennessee and Kentucky meet for the third time this season. The Wildcats swept the regular-season series and now look for a three-peat, while the Vols are aiming for revenge and a second straight Elite Eight appearance.

The night slate has both No. 1 seeds in action, starting with Auburn taking on a surging Michigan team in the South Region. All eyes will be on the battle down low between Johni Broome and the Wolverines’ duo of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin. There is also an intriguing chess match between Bruce Pearl and Dusty May, two coaches chasing a return to the Final Four.

The nightcap in Indianapolis features No. 1 Houston in what amounts to a road game against No. 4 Purdue..

We’ve got one best bet for each game, plus against-the-spread picks from our expert panel.

Odds via SportsLine consensus | All times Eastern 

(2) Michigan State vs. (6) Ole Miss 

7:09 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live: Beard is an elite scouter who neutralizes his opponents’ top option, and Michigan State has been a slow-starting team all year. While I expect a low-scoring first half, I’m not necessarily predicting a slower pace. This will come down to defensive stops from experienced teams with great coaches. After halftime, when adjustments take effect, the game could break open. That’s where I lean toward Michigan State continuing its trend as a second-half team, but those variables are tough to predict before tipoff. Pick: 1H Under 68.5 

(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Kentucky

7:39 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live: The Indianapolis regional will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium instead of an arena. That brings football stadium unders into play, especially in the first regional round as players adjust to the unique sight lines in a cavernous environment. Kentucky shot 24-for-48 from three-point range in its two regular-season wins against Tennessee. Some regression is expected in any gym, but the venue change could lead to a significant drop-off. Tennessee aims to disrupt Kentucky’s offensive rhythm and limit its transition opportunities, so I expect patient possessions and plenty of offensive rebounding from the Vols. Fewer Kentucky possessions should lead to less scoring, making the under a strong play. Pick: Under 144.5 

(1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan 

9:39 p.m. on CBS | March Madness Live: Michigan has enjoyed strong play from its perimeter players this postseason, with Tre Donaldson and Roddy Gale in particular providing balance beyond the twin towers down low. They’ll need to take care of the ball to give Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin a chance to dominate against an Auburn defense that has slipped over the last six games. If the Tigers get foul-happy trying to force turnovers, the Wolverines has to make them pay. I expect Auburn to reach the 80s, thanks to the tournament play of dynamic freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford and an offense capable of forcing Michigan out of position to generate easy baskets. Pick: Over 153.5 

(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue 

10:09 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live: When Purdue’s offense is rolling, much of its success revolves around a two-man game featuring Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Unfortunately for Purdue, it faces one of the nation’s best pick-and-roll defenses in Houston, as the Cougars not only get stops at a high level but also force turnovers. Houston not only has a matchup advantage against one of Purdue’s top offensive weapons, but also the personnel to exploit its leaky interior defense. LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Houston’s bigs should be able to get quality looks at the rim. If they convert, the Cougars should control the game. Pick: Houston -8.5