Last year’s Kentucky Derby had a thrilling finish with Mystik Dan edging out Sierra Leone and Forever Young by a nose in a photo finish. In fact, the winning horse has won by one length or less in 45 of 150 previous runs (30%) entering the 2025 Kentucky Derby on Saturday. The 2025 Kentucky Derby field appears competitive without one clear, dominant horse, as even Journalism, the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, has a loss over his career and has only run one Grade 1 stakes race. Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) follow with the next lowest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds.
The 2025 Kentucky Derby horses will race at Churchill Downs on Saturday, with a post time of 6:57 p.m. ET. Mystik Dan won as an 18-1 longshot last year, so is there an under-the-radar horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby lineup who can return a huge payday? Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks on betting sites like TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely cracks the top 10 finishers in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Rodriguez has won two of five career races, but only one of those victories came against a horse in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. Rodriguez won the Wood Memorial to qualify for the Kentucky Derby 2025, and Grande, at 20-1 odds to win the 2025 Kentucky Derby, finished second.
Rodriguez failed to win back-to-back races entering the Wood Memorial, and both of those victors will be running on Saturday. Journalism defeated Rodriguez, who finished third, at the San Felipe Stakes on March 1l Citizen Bull (20-1) won the Robert B. Lewis a month earlier, while Rodriguez finished second. Rodriguez is trained by Bob Baffert, which can be a blessing and a curse since he’ll garner more attention due to Baffert’s notoriety. Given Rodriguez’s prior results, Demling doesn’t see value in playing him in 2025 Kentucky Derby bets. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Forever Young proved last year at the Kentucky Derby that although Japanese horses are winless in seven runs at the Kentucky Derby, they are coming, and it seems to only be a matter of time until that statistic changes. Forever Young finished third in last year’s Kentucky Derby in a photo finish, and Demling believes Luxor Cafe can continue the ascent of Japanese horses on the Triple Crown stage.
Luxor Cafe has won four straight races, including three stakes events. Joao Moreira is considered one of the best jockeys in Hong Kong, but he’ll be making his Kentucky Derby debut on Saturday. There are always unknowns around international horses, but even the most casual horse racing fan should recognize something about Luxor Cafe. His father, American Pharoah, won the 2015 Triple Crown and that bloodline and that pedigree plays to Luxor Cafe’s advantage. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a colossal double-digit longshot who is “generating buzz on the backside.” Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which huge double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.
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