A highly anticipated 2025-26 NBA season tips off Tuesday, and the league might revolve around the usually football-crazy Southwestern USA because there are major story lines in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio as well as the defending league champions and reigning MVP playing in Oklahoma City. The Western Conference looks miles better than the East with the likes of superstars Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton expected to miss this season.
Milwaukee tried to stay competitive sans Damian Lillard by eating the remaining $113 million of his deal via waivers and signing Myles Turner. Giannis Antetokounmpo will have to play at an MVP level for the Bucks to hang in the East provided he’s not traded. Lillard returned to Portland but won’t play this year.
Incidentally, the past seven NBA MVP winners have been born outside the United States: Greece’s Antetokounmpo (twice), Serbia’s Nikola Jokic (thrice), Cameroon’s Joel Embiid and then Canada’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder last season. I find an American to be the best value this year; James Harden in 2018 (Houston version) was the last USA winner.
If you are into collectibles, there is something new in the Association this season as Fanatics/Topps is bringing its patch and gold logo patch programs per ESPN. Reportedly, all rookies will wear an NBA debut patch on his uniform that will be removed after play and put onto an autographed, numbered rookie card. Last season’s MVP (Gilgeous-Alexander), Rookie of the Year (San Antonio’s Stephon Castle) and Defensive Player of the Year (Cleveland’s Evan Mobley) will have a Gold NBA Logoman patch placed on their uniforms, which will be removed after play and inserted into rare trading cards.
I have picks for all those awards this year but subbed in Most Improved Player for Defensive Player of the Year because the Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama (-180) seems all but a sure thing to win it if he doesn’t get hurt again. The 7-foot-4 shot-blocking demon was the runaway favorite for DPOY at last season’s All-Star break but wasn’t able to play after due to deep vein thrombosis. The 2023 first overall pick is good go to for his team’s opener in Dallas next Wednesday. That’s must-see TV with Wemby vs. Flagg.
MVP pick: Jalen Brunson, Knicks (+10000, FanDuel)
I certainly don’t rule out Gilgeous-Alexander but like Heisman Trophy winners, NBA MVPs generally have to exceed their previous season’s numbers to repeat and I’m not sure SGA can do better than 32.7 points per game on 51.9% shooting from the field, 6.4 assists per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. I do quite like Antetokounmpo to have a big season and he’s pretty good value at +1100. But the Bucks might not be very good — and as noted, Antetokounmpo might be traded.
Because I like the Knicks to win the watered-down East, why not take Brunson at this terrific number? He just led New York to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. Playing more games against a watered-down East while MVP contenders in the West have to face much tougher competition can only help Brunson’s cause.
Voters already love him as Brunson won the NBA’s Clutch Player of the Year for 2024-25. And that was while he was playing under a defensive-minded head coach in Tom Thibodeau. New head coach Mike Brown should bring in some modern offensive concepts to put Brunson in position to be even more efficient.
Rookie of the Year pick: Cooper Flagg, Mavericks (-170, DraftKings)
This price is obviously too short for much value, but Flagg is such a cut above the rest of the rookie class. The only way he doesn’t win is if the No. 1 overall pick misses a ton of games with an injury. Note that players aren’t required to play 65 regular-season games to be eligible for Rookie of the Year, unlike other major awards. I’m just not sure I see another rookie who will contribute as much to a potentially good team.
The No. 1 overall pick won ROY in 2023 (Orlando’s Paolo Banchero) and in 2024 (San Antonio’s Wembanyama), but it went to No. 4 overall pick Castle of the Spurs last year. While a handful of clubs have had back-to-back Rookies of the Year, no team has had three in a row. San Antonio’s Dylan Harper, the No. 2 overall pick this year, is +1000. But he won’t even start most games as a rookie with De’Aaron Fox and Castle in the backcourt. Harper is raw, while Flagg is much more polished.
Most Improved Player pick: Amen Thompson, Rockets (+900)
This recommendation is 100% a result of Fred VanVleet’s season-ending injury for Houston, as arguably no player will benefit more from playing time and having the ball in his hands than the 22-year-old Thompson, the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft. With the departures of Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green to Phoenix in the Kevin Durant trade, Thompson was expected to take on a larger role even before the injury.
As it was, Thompson took a massive step forward last season in his sophomore campaign, raising his scoring from 9.5 PPG as a rookie to 14.1, his rebounding from 6.6 to 8.2, his assists from 2.6 to 3.8 and his blocks from 0.6 to 1.3. If he makes a similar third-year jump, Thompson will likely not only win this but be named an All-Star for the first time. The 6-foot-7 Thompson is already an elite defender and made the All-Defensive first team in 2024-25.
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