The Oklahoma City Thunder have won the the title and the 2025 NBA Draft is in the books. That means the NBA offseason is officially upon us, with free agency set to open at 6 p.m. ET on Monday night. Free agency, though, isn’t what it used to be. The new trend in the league is for the star players to sign extensions with their current teams before they ever get to free agency, and then if they want to move they just demand a trade to a preferred destination with their financials secured.
Teams have recognized this trend, and are no longer hoarding cap space to plan for free agents that never become available. As such, the Brooklyn Nets are the only team this summer with max cap space, so you shouldn’t be expecting major free agency news. Get ready for some mid-level madness.
That doesn’t mean some significant moves won’t happen. It just means, for the most part, they won’t be via the conventional free agent route. Let’s take a look at five bold NBA offseason predictions.
Along with the news that James has decided to opt in to his 2025-26 $52.6 million player option with the Lakers, James’ agent, Rich Paul, told ESPN this:
“LeBron wants to compete for a championship. He knows the Lakers are building for the future. He understands that, but he values a realistic chance of winning it all. We are very appreciative of the partnership that we’ve had for eight years with Jeanie [Buss] and Rob [Pelinka] and consider the Lakers as a critical part of his career.”
There’s a lot going on in that quote, and you don’t have to read too deeply between the lines to discern that LeBron is keeping a close eye on what the Lakers do this offseason, as he and the team may now be parting timelines. The Lakers need to plan for their Luka Dončić future, while James might only have one year left to compete for a fifth championship.
Right now, the Lakers can’t offer him the “realistic” opportunity to do this that Paul flat out said LeBron covets. They still don’t have a starting-caliber center. They don’t appear willing to part with any future draft capital. And now they might lose Dorian Finney-Smith for nothing. If this next week is a dud for the Lakers, you can bet the LeBron trade talk is going to start buzzing.
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It probably won’t happen. Anything of this magnitude, just by nature of the difficult mechanics and PR realities involved, is always less like to happen. But you can bet on some smoke. And if we get enough smoke, do not rule out a fire.
I don’t know where he’s going, but I don’t think the Knicks want to pay him the $156 million extension that he’s eligible to sign. Rather than letting Bridges get to free agency next summer when they could lose him for nothing, I think the Knicks get ahead of this and move Bridges this summer.
Keep in mind the Knicks have been in this position multiple times over recent years — with a guy they didn’t want to extend at a big number and also didn’t want to get to free agency — and every time they have traded the player in question. They did it with Julius Randle. They did it with Immanuel Quickley. They did it with Obi Toppin.
I think Bridges is the next to go under these circumstances. He was good for the Knicks last year, and it would be a bitter pill to swallow considering the massive package they gave up to get him just last summer, but it’s never a good idea to compound a mistake by making another one. The sunk-cost theory is real. New York isn’t getting the five first-round picks it traded for Bridges back, but, with the benefit of hindsight, if the Knicks now feel like they overpaid for Bridges, it should only reinforce their resolve not to do it again.
3. Kings make big-name trade
I don’t know if it’s going to be DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, some combination of them or, hell, all three of them, but the Kings are itching to make a move and I think they do it. Will it end up being a good move? Hey, it’s the Kings. They say they’re in dire need of a point guard, which they are, and which is hilarious because they could’ve drafted Luka Dončić and actually did draft De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. Pretty decent point guards there.
Anyway, the Kings will make a move. There’s been some smoke on DeRozan to the Mavericks. The Heat have kicked the tires on him for years it feels like. If there’s one team that might throw a million picks at the Celtics for Jaylen Brown, the Kings fit that bill. I don’t think that happens, but I think something does.
4. Warriors bring an old friend home
Here’s my prediction: The Warriors are going to try to put Jonathan Kuminga into a sign and trade that brings back a serious player. Derrick White makes a ton of sense, but the Celtics are reportedly going to demand an extremely aggressive package along the lines of the five first-round picks the Knicks paid for Mikal Bridges or Orlando’s four-pick package for Desmond Bane.
White is better than both those guys in a championship context, and the Warriors could feasibly pay it with a Kuminga-based package. But I don’t think they will. When it’s all said and done, the two most likely Kuminga outcomes this summer are the Warriors bringing him back and maybe trying to move him at the trade deadline, or making a less-splashy sign-and-trade.
I’m leaning toward the latter, and I think it ends up being with the Miami Heat in a transaction that brings Andrew Wiggins back to the Bay. Wiggins was a critical part of Golden State’s 2022 championship and is perfectly suited and willing to play the role that Kuminga doesn’t want. White would be a blockbuster get, but something smaller is more likely and Wiggins still gives Golden State a third legit scorer and another defender.
5. Pistons land a major mid-level player
Detroit is set up to be a big player in the mid-level madness that is going to be this free agency period. They can offer the full MLE and are rumored to be in the market for Santi Aldama or Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Both those guys would take an already very good Pistons team to another level — Aldama as a stretch big (Detroit could really use this) and Alexander-Walker as a top-shelf 3-and-D wing, with a major emphasis on the D.
Whoever it is, Detroit is going to add a guy during this period that will be really meaningful for a team that can honestly compete for a conference finals berth next season.
6. Spurs opt for OKC path
The Spurs are going to come up in every blockbuster brainchild because they have a deep war chest filled with really good young players/prospects, all kinds of draft capital, and a theoretical win-now opportunity with Victor Wembanyama. Kevin Durant would’ve made sense. Obviously Giannis Antetokounmpo would, too, if he burns out on the Bucks, which feels entirely feasible, if not likely. We’ll get to Jaylen Brown in a second, but he would make a lot of sense in San Antonio, too.
But in the end, I think the Spurs take the Oklahoma City path and remain patient rather than taking a big swing that could compromise the team’s ability to build properly around Wembanyama over the next decade-plus. The Spurs will hold onto their draft equity and allow 2024-25 Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle and 2025 No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper develop at a pace that doesn’t stretch them too far too quickly.
The Spurs can still make some moves (maybe Devin Vassell gets moved, or Jeremy Sochan), but it’s not going to be anything that shakes up the core. They’re taking the small steps. Compete for a playoff spot right now behind Wemby and De’Aaron Fox. Let the championship window open naturally, and keep yourself armed with enough cheap labor in the form of those future draft picks to keep it open, hopefully, in perpetuity.
7. Jaylen Brown stays with Celtics…
When the Celtics traded Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis, it was a sign to some that a total teardown was in the works as Jayson Tatum is probably set to miss all of next season. Brown and the aforementioned White are the names everyone is talking about, but let’s take a step back here. Sure, the Celtics probably won’t be a true contender this coming season, but remember, we’re talking about the Eastern Conference here. Brown, White and possibly Anfernee Simons (more in this below) isn’t nothing, and it’s not like Tatum is done for good. Opting for a total reset would be pretty hasty and you don’t just replace something like the Brown/Tatum duo.
Honestly, the Celtics could use a gap year. They’ve been in conference finals three of the last four years and the Finals two of the last four. Tatum and White both payed in the Olympics. This has been a long, difficult run with a lot of hard postseason miles on everyone’s bodies. Let these Boston guys breathe for a season and then pick it back up with Tatum in 2026-27, when he and Brown will both still be south of 30. That’s the measured play, and I’m confident Boston will go that route.
8. … but Anfernee Simons doesn’t
Now, the move I do believe the Celtics will make is to flip Anfernee Simons, who was acquired in the deal that sent Jrue Holiday to Portland. Simons is due to make $27.7 million this season, and with the Celtics trying to duck under the luxury tax, The Athletic’s Jay King reports that they are exploring the idea of rerouting Simons before he ever suits up as a Celtic.
Organizational priorities seem to be bringing back Al Horford and Luke Kornet and keeping Sam Hauser, but if they’re going to do all that and get under the tax Simons has to go.
Boston would have to find a way to take back less salary then it sends out in Simons. Perhaps Brooklyn would be willing to absorb Simons, who’s on an expiring contract, into its plentiful cap space for a sweetener, or serve as a third team in a more complicated structure. There has been other reporting linking Simons to the Clippers.
The Grizzlies have to get to about $14 million under the salary cap in order to renegotiate the last year on Jaren Jackson Jr.’s current contract to a number high enough that the 140% raise rule will take him to a max extension beginning next year. I think they figure it out. They’ll likely trade John Konchar and maybe waive and stretch Cole Anthony or incentivize a team with space to take him on with a future draft pick. However they do it, Memphis has to get this done. They cannot let JJJ get to free agency next summer with the Lakers could be positioned with max space and a chance to play alongside Luka Doncic.
10. Jrue Holiday stays in Portland
The moment that Holiday got moved to the Blazers, many assumed he would be flipped somewhere else. That’s what happened when Milwaukee traded him to the Blazers in the Damian Lillard deal two summer ago. Holiday was rerouted to Boston.
But this time, the Blazers are in a different place. They believe they have the goods to compete for at least a play-in spot, even in the murderous Western Conference, and Holiday will obviously aid that effort considerably. I think the Blazers enter the season with that goal, and if it’s not going so well, then they looked to move Holiday at the deadline when a contender looking to get over the top might be willing to pay a premium price.
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